Gale Warning 540, NWS Anchorage, AK

133 
FZAK61 PAFC 240631 CCA
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 23 2013

CORRECTED ZONE 352

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-241500-
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 989 MB LOW NEAR 57N 142W WILL WEAKEN TO 1008 MB NEAR 55N 138W TUE
MORNING AND DISSIPATE TUE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF TUE AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EAST BY WED AFTERNOON. A
WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WED MORNING. 

$$

PKZ351-241500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 23 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-241500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT MON SEP 23 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. 
.TUE...E OF 148W...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. W OF 148W...VARIABLE WIND 20
KT BECOMING SE 25 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

978 
FZAK61 PAFC 241200
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-250300-
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 57N 140W WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY
WED MORNING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF TUE
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF COAST WED MORNING. A 997 MB
LOW WILL MOVE OVER KODIAK ISLAND EARLY THU MORNING.
$$

PKZ351-250300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-250300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E OF 148W...W WIND 20 KT. W OF 148W...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING
SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

JM

281 
FZAK61 PAFC 242318
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-251500-
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING AND
REACH THE NORTH GULF COAST BY WED MORNING. A 988 MB LOW NEAR 58N 160W
WED AFTERNOON WILL STEADILY WEAKEN TO 998 MB NEAR 59N 147W THU
AFTERNOON

$$

PKZ351-251500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-251500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKDT TUE SEP 24 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

463 
FZAK61 PAFC 251200
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 25 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-260300-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST LATE THIS MORNING. A 997 MB LOW WILL MOVE OVER KODIAK ISLAND
WED NIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO NEAR 58N 146W AT 998 MB AND DISSIPATE THU
EVENING. A 975 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR 56N 156W EARLY FRI MORNING.
$$

PKZ351-260300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 25 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-260300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 25 2013

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

JM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT MON SEP 23 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THE MULTI-DAY STORM IN THE GULF IS WEAKENING FROM THE TOP-DOWN...WITH
THE UPPER LEVELS NOW JUST AN OPEN WAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW FILLING
RAPIDLY. DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD BACK ALL THE WAY TO UPPER
COOK INLET...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTERLY SHORTWAVE HAS
BROUGHT THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON TO PARTS OF THE
ANCHORAGE AND MAT-SU AREAS. A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHWEST MAINLAND IS ALLOWING FOR SUNNY SKIES
AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. FURTHER WEST...A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER
TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY
BEGINNING TO SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A 145 KT JET STREAK CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
WITH THE GULF LOW FINALLY WEAKENING ALL EYES TURN TO THE NEXT MAJOR
STORM CURRENTLY FORMING NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. MODEL TRENDS IN
THE LAST 24 HOURS HAVE ALL BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE SPEED OF THIS LOW.
WHEN COMPARED TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE DEEP MOISTURE BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAM IS STILL FURTHER WEST THAN ALL OF THE
MODELS...MEANING THAT PERHAPS THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE SLOWED
DOWN EVEN FURTHER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES. AS THIS LOW HEADS
EASTWARD...THE NAM BECOMES AN OUTLIER IN BRINGING THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW/WAVE INTO INTERIOR ALASKA AS OPPOSED TO MOVING INTO THE GULF.
THUS ON BOTH FORECAST DOMAINS THE GFS WAS THE PREFERRED MODEL...BOTH
SLOWING DOWN THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW AND INCREASING WIND SPEEDS
SLIGHTLY. THE NEXT STORM THAT FORMS ON THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING CONTINUES TO HAVE MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DISAGREEMENT. ALL
THAT CAN BE CONFIDENTLY SAID AT THIS POINT IS THAT A VERY STRONG 200
KT JET STREAM WILL BE FUELING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW THAT
WILL DROP TOWARD THE BRISTOL BAY AREA SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS AN
UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE BOTTOM TO FALL OUT FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS WITH SNOWFALL FROM TODAY...ALLOWING THE AREA TO EXPERIENCE A
HARD FREEZE AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS ALSO INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AROUND UPPER COOK INLET
WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN THE HEAVIEST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING BERING SEA LOW. THE WEATHER
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL ENTER THE GULF BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ONCE AGAIN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE FAVORED TERRAIN GAPS. CURRENTLY...IT
LOOKS LIKE WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM WILL TOP OUT SHY OF WARNING
LEVELS...BUT IF MODELS TREND TOWARD THE 12Z NAM SOLUTION AND CARRY
MORE OF THE STORMS ENERGY INTO THE INTERIOR THESE SPEEDS WILL NEED TO
BE REVISED UPWARD.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE BERING LOW GAINS STRENGTH. STRONG WINDS WILL
NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INLAND AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONG THE
COAST...BUT A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL STILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND ACROSS
MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW CENTER ITSELF WILL FOLLOW A
TRACK ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND INTO THE GULF...SIMILAR TO THE LAST
STORM...WHICH WILL KEEP MOST OF SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE STRONGEST
PORTIONS OF THE STORM WITH SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS THE BIGGEST IMPACT.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SOURCE
REGION FOR STRONG LOW DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE FIRST LOW WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS
EVENING AND FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE PREVIOUS STORM. AS
SUCH...EXPECTING THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TO AGAIN BEAR THE BRUNT OF
THIS STORM. SOME KEY DIFFERENCES...THOUGH...ARE THAT THE FORWARD
SPEED OF THE STORM ITSELF WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER WHICH WILL
MAKE IT HARD FOR WINDS TO BECOME TOO EXTREME. ADDITIONALLY...THE
STORM WILL HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY PRIOR TO REACHING THE DUTCH
HARBOR AREA. BOTTOM LINE: EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BUT
LIKELY PEAK RIGHT AROUND HURRICANE FORCE (75 MPH)...THUS WILL BE
UPGRADING THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. AS
MENTIONED...THE STORM WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT HEADS EASTWARD FROM THE
DUTCH HARBOR AREA...BUT MAY HOLD STRENGTH LONG ENOUGH TO ALSO BRING
HIGH WINDS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AREA...THUS WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR THIS AREA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOOKS AS IF IT WILL STAY IN PLACE ACROSS MAINLAND
ALASKA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF
THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE BERING SEA THAT FEATURES STRONG
LOWS MOVING EASTWARD AND DROPPING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MAINLAND WILL REBOUND TO NEAR-NORMAL ON
TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO BRING IN SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO BRING IN CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING MIDWEEK
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL
AREAS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 185
         HIGH WIND WATCH 181
MARINE...STORM 170 172
         GALE 120 130 132 150 155 160 165 171 175 176 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

AMD SEP 13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1018 AM AKDT MON SEP 23 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 AM     SNOW             EAGLE RIVER             61.32N 149.57W
09/23/2013  M2.5 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING. TEMPERATURE IS 34
            DEGREES.

&&

MCLAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
323 PM AKDT MON SEP 23 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0323 PM     SNOW             6 NNE KENAI LAKE        60.30N 149.17W
09/23/2013  M2.5 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL OF 2.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WAS MEASURED.

&&

MCLAY