Gale Warning 305, NWS Anchorage, AK

185 
FZAK51 PAFC 232320
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 23 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-241500-
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1008 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF WHITTIER WILL DISSIPATE IN PLACE BY
TONIGHT. A 1002 MB LOW NEAR SAND POINT WILL MOVE TO 90 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KODIAK CITY AT 999 MB SUN MORNING...THEN TRACK TO 40 NM EAST
OF SEWARD AT 991 MB MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-241500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR
THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT EXCEPT E 35 KT NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING W 35 KT W OF CAPE CLEARE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...SE WIND 30 KT
BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-241500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 23 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-241500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ126-241500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ127-241500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-241500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-241500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 23 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-241500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF
THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. E OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-241500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-241500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-241500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-241500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
55 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-241500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. N OF
KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY S OF
KALGIN ISLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 6 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY S OF KALGIN ISLAND IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND.
SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-241500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT SAT MAR 23 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT SAT MAR 23 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A FAIRLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA
THIS MORNING...WHILE A SERIES OF LOWS IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN. A LOW AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ARE BRINGING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL
MAINLAND...WITH HEAVY SNOW FALLING ALONG THE GULF COAST AT LOCATIONS
SUCH AS VALDEZ AND CORDOVA. ANOTHER LOW IS BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO
THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE SOME KEY MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST. THE ECMWF AND GEMGLB MODELS ARE FAVORED WITH THE SECOND
TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT WILL FORM AND MOVE INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
THE GEMGLB IS THE FAVORED MODEL IN THE WEST. THE ECMWF WAS OVERALL
THE PREFERRED MODEL IN THE EXTENDED...SINCE IT HAS BEEN THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH LOW TRACK/STRENGTH/TIMING.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS AREA TODAY ARE HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL
FALL. LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE CENTRAL KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY THIS MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS ALONG THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO GET STEADY SNOWFALL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. LIGHTER SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY FOR THESE COASTAL LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER IS COMING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW TRACKS EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND TOWARD PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA/ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA TODAY AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY SUNDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE LOW 20S ON SAINT PAUL ISLAND WITH
THIS STORM...SO THE GUSTY WINDS AND FALLING SNOW HAVE PRODUCED SOME
VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE AS A RESULT. REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL
CONTINUE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE ONE MILE AS THE LOW SLIDES
BY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TODAY. THE NEXT LOW WILL BE
MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SEVERAL LOWS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
AND INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 120 150 172 175 179 185 411 412 414.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 140 150 165 179 411 412 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SCHRECK