Gale Warning 292, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT SUN MAR 17 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 84 HOURS. GENERALLY PREFER THE
NAM FOR ITS BETTER HANDLING OF LOCAL EFFECTS.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THAT
STRETCHES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE ARCTIC OCEAN. THERE
IS ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE BERING SEA. A SMALL LOW IS ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF ALASKA AND MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN ARCTIC
LOW CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF BANKS ISLAND CANADA IS MOVING
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL HAVE AN INCREASING IMPACT ON WEATHER
OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO THE
GULF OF ALASKA ON MONDAY THEN INTO THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME THE CENTRAL ALASKA RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE
NORTHWEST. AS THE CANADIAN LOW MOVES SOUTH AND THE BERING RIDGE
BUILDS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY THROUGH TUESDAY AND NORTHWESTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE GAP WINDS AND KEEP THE AIR MASS COLD AND DRY.

FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN STABLE THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE CENTRAL ALASKAN RIDGE WEAKENS. LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY THE GAP WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
NORTHERLY. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY.

FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AS THE LOW
OVER THE AREA MOVES SOUTHEAST. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD PRETTY MUCH END
LATER MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF AND THE BERING HIGH
BUILDS. THE FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL ALSO BECOME NORTHERLY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON USHERING IN MORE COLD AIR THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 172 175 176.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 160 165.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG MAR 13