Gale Warning 280, NWS Anchorage, AK

186 
FZAK51 PAFC 132305
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 13 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-141500-
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 13 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL 
GULF THROUGH THU. A NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW WILL TRACK TO 300 NM 
SOUTH OF YAKUTAT THU AFTERNOON AT 999 MB AND THEN TO 120 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT FRI AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.

$$

PKZ120-141500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 13 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE
COAST. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. NEAR THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE
ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE COAST. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-141500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 13 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-141500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ126-141500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. SNOW DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ127-141500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 13 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ128-141500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-141500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 13 2013

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-141500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 13 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW DEVELOPING THIS EVENING.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NE 30 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. SEAS
6 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-141500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 13 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ136-141500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 13 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ137-141500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 13 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-141500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-141500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 13 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-141500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKDT WED MAR 13 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

JM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT TUE MAR 12 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS WERE GOOD THIS MORNING.
OVERALL MODELS ARE REASONABLE AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT
60 HRS. AFTER THIS THE ECMWF HAS THE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
THIS AFTERNOON PACKAGES WILL BE BASED ON THE NAM THROUGH WED FOR
OUTFLOW WINDS...THEN LOOKING AT A ECMWF BLEND THROUGH 84 HRS.

.ANALYSIS...FAIR SKIES WERE EVIDENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND
FORECAST AREA. STRONG N/S PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH SUPPORTING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW GENERATED STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 70S AND 80S MPH
WERE EVIDENT IN VALDEZ AND THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. STRONG NE
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 60S MPH WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE MATANUSKA.
NUMEROUS AREAS OF BRISK NORTHERLY AND GAP FLOWS WERE EVIDENT ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SW ALASKA WERE NOT AS STRONG
WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20S TO 30S MPH IN THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS IS PRODUCING RAIN/SNOW AND
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. COLDER AND UNSTABLE AIR IS
EVIDENT TO ITS WEST BY OPEN CELL CU AND SNOW SHOWERS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ACCOMPANIED BY WARNING
LEVELS GUSTS IN ZONES 131 AND 135 WILL CONTINUE INTO WED AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN GENERALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT AS
UPPER SUPPORT WAINS. THOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF
COAST WILL REMAIN STRONG AS THE INTERIOR HIGH MAINTAINS INTENSITY AND
A WEAK LOW RETROGRADES WEST ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE EASTERLY GALES ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WED NIGHT/THU. DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE REPLACED WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH GULF/KENAI PEN/COOK INLET
WED NIGHT/THU AS LOW MOVES WEST ACROSS THE GULF.

.SW ALASKA...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW IS EVIDENT
OVER THE SW MAINLAND. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
WED. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW COMING OFF THE ICE PACK WILL GATHER MOISTURE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF BRISTOL BAY AND PRODUCE CLOUDS
WITH SOME CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AK PEN. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF SW ALASKA THU AS THE GULF LOW BACKS
WEST.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL DRIFT EAST AND
DISSIPATE WED NIGHT. A SECONDARY AND STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE WED NIGHT AND TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS/CENTRAL
BERING SEA FRI MORNING. SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT ALONG WITH RAIN AND SNOW. COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL TRAIL THE FRONTAL ZONE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS WE MOVE FURTHER THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH LOWS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING SHORT LIVED
PERIODS OF PRECIP TO AREAS THAT THEY PASS. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND A DEEP LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE
ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 131 AND 135.
MARINE...GALES 120 126 127 128 130 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAR 13