Gale Warning 278, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKDT TUE MAR 12 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL INITIALIZATIONS WERE GOOD THIS MORNING.
OVERALL MODELS ARE REASONABLE AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT
60 HRS. AFTER THIS THE ECMWF HAS THE BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.
THIS AFTERNOON PACKAGES WILL BE BASED ON THE NAM THROUGH WED FOR
OUTFLOW WINDS...THEN LOOKING AT A ECMWF BLEND THROUGH 84 HRS.

.ANALYSIS...FAIR SKIES WERE EVIDENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND
FORECAST AREA. STRONG N/S PRESSURE GRADIENTS WITH SUPPORTING
NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW GENERATED STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 70S AND 80S MPH
WERE EVIDENT IN VALDEZ AND THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER DELTA. STRONG NE
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 60S MPH WAS EVIDENT ACROSS THE MATANUSKA.
NUMEROUS AREAS OF BRISK NORTHERLY AND GAP FLOWS WERE EVIDENT ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS SW ALASKA WERE NOT AS STRONG
WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20S TO 30S MPH IN THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS IS PRODUCING RAIN/SNOW AND
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. COLDER AND UNSTABLE AIR IS
EVIDENT TO ITS WEST BY OPEN CELL CU AND SNOW SHOWERS.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ACCOMPANIED BY WARNING
LEVELS GUSTS IN ZONES 131 AND 135 WILL CONTINUE INTO WED AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL THEN GENERALLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT AS
UPPER SUPPORT WAINS. THOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF
COAST WILL REMAIN STRONG AS THE INTERIOR HIGH MAINTAINS INTENSITY AND
A WEAK LOW RETROGRADES WEST ACROSS THE NORTH GULF. THIS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE EASTERLY GALES ACROSS THE NORTH GULF WED NIGHT/THU. DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE REPLACED WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH GULF/KENAI PEN/COOK INLET
WED NIGHT/THU AS LOW MOVES WEST ACROSS THE GULF.

.SW ALASKA...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY NORTHERLY FLOW IS EVIDENT
OVER THE SW MAINLAND. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
WED. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW COMING OFF THE ICE PACK WILL GATHER MOISTURE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF BRISTOL BAY AND PRODUCE CLOUDS
WITH SOME CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AK PEN. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF SW ALASKA THU AS THE GULF LOW BACKS
WEST.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL DRIFT EAST AND
DISSIPATE WED NIGHT. A SECONDARY AND STRONGER FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE WED NIGHT AND TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS/CENTRAL
BERING SEA FRI MORNING. SMALL CRAFT TO GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT ALONG WITH RAIN AND SNOW. COOLER AND SHOWERY
WEATHER WILL TRAIL THE FRONTAL ZONE.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS WE MOVE FURTHER THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH LOWS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING SHORT LIVED
PERIODS OF PRECIP TO AREAS THAT THEY PASS. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND A DEEP LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE
ALEUTIANS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 131 AND 135.
MARINE...GALES 120 126 127 128 130 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAR 13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1005 AM AKDT TUE MAR 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0859 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NNW VALDEZ            61.12N 146.35W
03/12/2013  M74.00 MPH                          AK   AWOS

            CORRECTION TO LOCATION

&&

DSTRICKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
342 PM AKDT TUE MAR 12 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0859 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NNW VALDEZ            61.12N 146.35W
03/12/2013  M74.00 MPH                          AK   AWOS

            CORRECTION TO LOCATION

1056 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NNE VALDEZ            61.13N 146.27W
03/12/2013  M94.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

&&

DSTRICKL