Gale Warning 274, NWS Anchorage, AK

901 
FZAK52 PAFC 102248
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 10 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-111500-
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 10 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE. A
WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH TUE.

$$

PKZ150-111500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 10 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF CHIRIKOF
ISLAND. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF CHIRIKOF 
ISLAND. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF CHIRIKOF
ISLAND. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-111500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 10 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-111500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 10 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-111500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 10 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG W OF PORT MOLLER 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY E OF PORT MOLLER. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG W OF PORT MOLLER. 
FREEZING SPRAY E OF PORT MOLLER. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG W OF PORT MOLLER.
FREEZING SPRAY E OF PORT MOLLER. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-111500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 10 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG S OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT N 20 KT W OF NUNIVAK
ISLAND. PATCHY FOG S OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-111500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 10 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT BERING SIDE...6 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT BERING SIDE...9 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-111500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 10 2013

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-111500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 10 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT S 20 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 9
FT BERING SIDE...13 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT S 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...15 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND.
SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-111500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 10 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT BERING SIDE...19 FT PACIFIC 
SIDE. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 BERING SIDE...18 FT
PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-111500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 10 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. FROM SHEMYA W...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING
TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-111500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 10 2013

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE 30 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SNOW. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT SE 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S 25 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-111500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKDT SUN MAR 10 2013

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. AREAS OF FOG IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT.  

$$
TP

696 
FZAK52 PAFC 111107
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 11 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-120300-
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 11 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-120300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 8
FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 7
FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ155-120300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6
FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY TOWARD THE COAST. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY TOWARD THE COAST. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ160-120300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 11 2013

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ165-120300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 11 2013

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-120300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 11 2013

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT EXCEPT SE 15 KT FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND W. PATCHY
FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT SE 15 KT FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND W. PATCHY
FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT.  
$$

PKZ170-120300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-120300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 11 2013

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-120300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 11 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT EXCEPT S 15 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT
BERING SIDE...15 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT E OF SEGUAM ISLAND.
SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ175-120300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 11 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ176-120300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 11 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 15 KT BY MORNING. SEAS 19
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-120300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 11 2013

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SE 15 KT EAST OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT.  
$$

PKZ179-120300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKDT MON MAR 11 2013

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
FOG. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 PM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A COMPLEX PATTERN ALOFT TODAY WITH THE JET STREAM DISPLACED WELL
SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC. A WEAK CONGLOMERATION OF TROUGHS EXISTS WITH
A ROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM SIBERIA ARCING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR...CONNECTING TO TWO UPPER LOW CENTERS IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHERN PACIFIC. THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING IS A MATURE UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC...RESULTING IN HEAT/MOISTURE PUMPING INTO THE
WESTERN BERING AND BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING ARCING TOWARD THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. A
SNEAKY FEATURE BETWEEN THE MAINLAND TROUGH AND THE PACIFIC LOW LURKS
OVER THE NORTHERN BERING. THE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW WITH AN ATTENDANT 125KT JET STREAK WHILE WEAKENING ITSELF WILL
LIKELY AMPLIFY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND IT OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESSURE PATTERN MIMICS THE UPPER LEVELS
PRETTY WELL. THE SOUTHCENTRAL IS EXPERIENCING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND IS A MIX
BETWEEN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW/NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS BEHIND THE WEAK TROUGH
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS A
DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW/REX BLOCK PATTERN AS A CLOSED HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THROUGH THE CHUKCHI/BEAUFORT SEAS TO THE NORTH
OF A MIGRATORY UPPER LOW IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE DOMINANT
LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER KAMCHATKA WITH ANOTHER
OVER THE NORTHERN CANADIAN ARCTIC. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST
WINDS PREFERRED FOR THE EAST WITH A GFS/ECMWF BLEND IN THE WEST.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY SPINS IN THE WESTERN GULF KEEPING MUCH OF THE
SOUTHCENTRAL IN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NUMEROUS RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A WEAK DE-AMPLIFYING LEADING
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK OVER MOST
OF THE REGION TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE COOK
INLET REGION WITH A BETTER CHANCE FROM TALKEETNA NORTHWARD. A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR SNOW WILL OVERTAKE THE REGION LATE MORNING SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES FROM THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. MOST AREAS FROM TALKEETNA SOUTHWARD
THROUGH ANCHORAGE WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS WITH AMOUNTS
INCREASING FROM KENAI SOUTHWARD THROUGH KACHEMAK BAY WITH 1 TO 3
INCHES POSSIBLE FOR KENAI SOUTHWARD. AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WE WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH INTERIOR HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO MORE OF
A COLDER OUTFLOW PATTERN NOT SEEN FOR A WHILE AROUND HERE. PERHAPS
WINTER 12/13'S DEATH RATTLE.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY REGIONS ARE
SEEING THE SNOW GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY HANGING
AROUND THE ALASKA/ALEUTIAN RANGES. THE NEXT WAVE IS COMING ASHORE THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION. SNOWFALL WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING...SPREADING INTO BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY REGIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL RAMP UP PRETTY QUICKLY AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE COMBINING WITH THE PRECIPITATION TO BRING A QUICK SHOT OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST.
THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA TOMORROW SETTING UP DRIER AND COLDER
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...A QUICK MOVING FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL SKIRT THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW
TO THE ALASKAN PENINSULA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
KAMCHATKA LOW COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHES EASTWARD AND STALLS OUT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH MID
WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A BIT MORE VARIABLE THAN USUAL CONSIDERING
WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IN THE COMING
DAYS. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A CONTINUATION OF A BLOCKING
PATTERN WITH COLD AIR REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155 161
MARINE...GALE 132 150 175 176 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

MTL MAR 13