Gale Warning 230, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE REMNANTS OF YESTERDAYS ALEUTIAN LOW IS CONTINUING TO SPREAD SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THIS LOW IS BEGINNING TO SPLIT INTO
TWO DISTINCT CIRCULATIONS. THE FIRST WAS FORMED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE LOW AS IT MADE LANDFALL YESTERDAY MORNING...AND IS MOVING NORTH
AND WEAKENING THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. THE SECOND IS A DEVELOPING
CIRCULATION FORMING ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...AND WILL CONTINUE ON
ITS PATH INTO THE GULF OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING IS PROGRESSING EAST TOWARDS SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIND...SNOW...AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE SOUTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IN THE GULF THIS EVENING. AFTERWARDS...THE NAM
IS TOO DEEP WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHCENTRAL FROM THE
WESTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE NAM IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR COOK INLET STARTING LATE SUNDAY
MORNING. GOOD AGREEMENT THEN CONTINUES TO EXIST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN BERING INTO THE NORTHERN
MAINLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING A QUIETER...ALTHOUGH
COOLER...WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE MAINLAND AND ALEUTIANS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE QUIETER WEATHER TODAY THAN IN
THE PAST FEW DAYS...AS THERE ARE NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS TO SPEAK
OF UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR WILL MOVE INTO THE COOK INLET REGION...PRODUCING
SNOWFALL OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS
SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH UP TO 4 INCHES
ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

SOUTHWEST...MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL SEE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE MORNING AS
A WEAK TROUGH DISSIPATES OVER THE ALASKA RANGE. THIS WILL BE A SHORT
LIVED BREAK IN THE WEATHER AS THE LOW CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN BERING
WILL QUICKLY BRING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO
THE WESTERN COAST OF BRISTOL BAY LATE THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE INTERIOR AREAS OF BRISTOL BAY
AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...
THE BERING SEA LOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING STRONG WINDS...SNOW...AND
RAIN TO THE ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF TODAY.
ONE CONCERN FROM THIS SYSTEM IS WHETHER OR NOT THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE PRIBILOFS...AS THERE IS
AROUND 6 INCHES OF NEW TRANSPORTABLE SNOW FROM THE MOST RECENT
ALEUTIAN LOW. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...AND
POSSIBLY MIX WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS IT WAS DECIDED
TO NOT ISSUE A BLIZZARD WARNING.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST THAN THAT FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE WHICH WAS
MENTIONED IN THE MODEL DISCUSSION SECTION ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN IT WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A SIBERIAN LOW
PUSHES THE ARCTIC LOW TOWARDS THE ARCTIC CIRCLE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155 161
MARINE...GALE...172 175 176 179 180
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...160
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DEK MAR 13