Gale Warning 229, NWS Anchorage, AK

608 
FZAK62 PAFC 091238
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-100300-
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 995 MB LOW NEAR 59N 179W WILL MOVE TO 63N 165W AT 1005 MB SAT
NIGHT...THEN MOVE INLAND SUN MORNING. A 969 MB NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW 
ON SAT MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND WEAKEN TO 977
MB MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-100300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SE 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-100300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-100300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ414-100300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
5 FT. 

$$

637 
FZAK62 PAFC 092351
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-101500-
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1003 MB LOW NEAR 63N 170W WILL MOVE ON SHORE NEAR 64N 161W AT 1012
MB SAT NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA
TONIGHT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH MON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA SUN INTO MON.
$$

PKZ411-101500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-101500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12  FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-101500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-101500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  

$$

JM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 8 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE POWERFUL LOW IN THE BERING SEA HAS
ELONGATED AS IT WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHWARD. IT HAS DEVELOPED A
SECONDARY CENTER WITH THE STRONGER ONE NEAR THE BERING STRAIT AND
MOVING NORTHWARD AND A WEAKER ONE IN BRISTOL BAY...WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TOMORROW.
THERE IS STILL A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW IN BRISTOL
BAY. THIS LOW IS NOT MOVING MUCH AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO SEE
IF IT MOVES EASTWARD AS SOON AS THE MODELS PROJECT. THERE IS A GOOD
AROUND OF COLD AIR FEEDING INTO THE LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE
LOW MAY BE DELAYED IN ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION DUE TO THIS.
AT THE UPPER LEVELS THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF DUE SOUTH FLOW
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WITH STILL WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WESTERN
BERING SEA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WITH
THE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER MOST OF THE BERING SEA AND THEN OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE A GOOD LOCK ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN SOLUTIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THERE ARE
SOME SMALLER SCALE FEATURES THAT ARE DIFFERENT IN THE MODELS THAT
WILL HAVE SOME BERING ON THE FORECAST HOWEVER. THE FIRST IS THE
SECONDARY LOW IN BRISTOL BAY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT LOW IS BEST
RESOLVED BY THE NAM AND WHILE ALL MODELS MOVE IT INTO THE GULF
TOMORROW THE MORE NORTHERLY NAM SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE THE BEST ONE.
THE ECMWF IS LIKELY TOO FAR SOUTH WHILE THE GFS IS SMOOTHING OUT THE
DETAIL TOO MUCH. THE BIGGER ISSUE IS THE DETAILS WITH UN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AROUND COOK INLET ON SUNDAY.
THE GFS IS SHOWING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW AROUND THE AREA WHILE THE
NAM SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVER MOST OF
THE COOK INLET REGION INCLUDING ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU. A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IS THE WAY THE NAM DEVELOPS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
IN THE INLET AND THE GFS CONSOLIDATES THE PATTER INTO ONE LOW OVER
THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA. THE COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WOULD FAVOR
THE NAM SOLUTION OVER THE GFS. THE ECMWF OS OVERALL CLOSER TO THE NAM
SOLUTION BUT LACKS THE DETAIL DUE TO RESOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE MOST HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS AROUND THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MOST OF
TEH DAY. FALSE PASS, COLD BAY, AND KING COVE HAVE BEEN GUSTING IN THE
50 TO 65 MPH RANGE IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
AROUND THE LOW IN BRISTOL BAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EASTWARD. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER THIS LOW COULD BE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED IN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT AND ITS PROGRESS SHOULD BE WATCHED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR PERSONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM.
THE BRISTOL BAY REGION FROM PORT HEIDEN TO NAKNEK WILL SEE SOME SNOW
AND BLOWING OR DRIFTING SNOW AS THIS LOW MOVES EASTWARD. HOWEVER IT
WILL BE WEAKENING SO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
WHERE THEY ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AREA OF BRISTOL BAY WEST OF NAKNEK AND NORTHWARD TOWARD BETHEL
WILL SEE SNOWFALL AS THE FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF THE LOW IN BRISTOL BAY
AND THE ONE NEAR THE BERING STRAIT WILL KEEP MOISTURE AND LIFTING
OVER THE AREA. THIS SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT IN THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA BUT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY FOR THE BRISTOL BAY
ZONE.
THERE IS A WEAKENING FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THAT HAS
BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE NORTH GULF COAST TODAY. THIS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A QUESTION ABOUT HOW LONG THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER FROM EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
EASTWARD. WHILE THE BEST DYNAMIC LIFT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ARE WITH
THE FRONT THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM THE MOUNTAINS MAY KEEP
PRECIPITATION AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALDEZ THROUGH
THOMPSON PASS. SNOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
TOMORROW AS THE LOW IN BRISTOL BAY MOVE INTO THE AREA.
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THOUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY
WILL DIMINISH BY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE SCALE
RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE EASTERN BERING SEA INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR. THIS SETUP WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH THE STATE AS AN ARCTIC HIGH DESCENDS INTO THE
EASTERN INTERIOR. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY HOLD THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 181.
MARINE...GALE 175 176 180. STORM 179.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR 13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1255 PM AKST FRI MAR 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ENE POTTER MARSH      61.06N 149.76W
03/07/2013  M86 MPH                             AK   MESONET

&&

DSTRICKL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
212 PM AKST FRI MAR 08 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW GLEN ALPS         61.10N 149.72W
03/07/2013  M75 MPH                             AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

DSTRICKL