Brisk Wind Advisory 32, NWS Anchorage, AK

294 
FZAK52 PAFC 092354
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-101500-
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1003 MB LOW 90 NM SOUTHEAST OF GAMBELL WILL MOVE ON SHORE NEAR
UNALAKLEET AT 1012 MB SAT NIGHT. A WEATHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA TONIGHT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH MON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA SUN INTO MON.
$$

PKZ150-101500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 8
FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-101500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-101500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-101500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-101500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY
FOG. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-101500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-101500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-101500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. BERING SIDE...SEAS 8 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...
SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-101500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED AND THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-101500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-101500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 15 KT. E OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 30 KT. E OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND...E WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 35 KT. E OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 20 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-101500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AKST SAT MAR 9 2013

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT TOWARDS MORNING. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT.  

$$

JM

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI MAR 8 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE POWERFUL LOW IN THE BERING SEA HAS
ELONGATED AS IT WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTHWARD. IT HAS DEVELOPED A
SECONDARY CENTER WITH THE STRONGER ONE NEAR THE BERING STRAIT AND
MOVING NORTHWARD AND A WEAKER ONE IN BRISTOL BAY...WHICH WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TOMORROW.
THERE IS STILL A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW IN BRISTOL
BAY. THIS LOW IS NOT MOVING MUCH AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO SEE
IF IT MOVES EASTWARD AS SOON AS THE MODELS PROJECT. THERE IS A GOOD
AROUND OF COLD AIR FEEDING INTO THE LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE
LOW MAY BE DELAYED IN ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION DUE TO THIS.
AT THE UPPER LEVELS THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF DUE SOUTH FLOW
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WITH STILL WESTERLY FLOW IN THE WESTERN
BERING SEA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN RUSSIA WITH
THE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER MOST OF THE BERING SEA AND THEN OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE A GOOD LOCK ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN SOLUTIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THERE ARE
SOME SMALLER SCALE FEATURES THAT ARE DIFFERENT IN THE MODELS THAT
WILL HAVE SOME BERING ON THE FORECAST HOWEVER. THE FIRST IS THE
SECONDARY LOW IN BRISTOL BAY THIS AFTERNOON. THAT LOW IS BEST
RESOLVED BY THE NAM AND WHILE ALL MODELS MOVE IT INTO THE GULF
TOMORROW THE MORE NORTHERLY NAM SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE THE BEST ONE.
THE ECMWF IS LIKELY TOO FAR SOUTH WHILE THE GFS IS SMOOTHING OUT THE
DETAIL TOO MUCH. THE BIGGER ISSUE IS THE DETAILS WITH UN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AROUND COOK INLET ON SUNDAY.
THE GFS IS SHOWING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW AROUND THE AREA WHILE THE
NAM SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVER MOST OF
THE COOK INLET REGION INCLUDING ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU. A
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IS THE WAY THE NAM DEVELOPS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
IN THE INLET AND THE GFS CONSOLIDATES THE PATTER INTO ONE LOW OVER
THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA. THE COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WOULD FAVOR
THE NAM SOLUTION OVER THE GFS. THE ECMWF OS OVERALL CLOSER TO THE NAM
SOLUTION BUT LACKS THE DETAIL DUE TO RESOLUTION.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE MOST HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS AROUND THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MOST OF
TEH DAY. FALSE PASS, COLD BAY, AND KING COVE HAVE BEEN GUSTING IN THE
50 TO 65 MPH RANGE IN WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
AROUND THE LOW IN BRISTOL BAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE
THIS EVENING AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EASTWARD. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER THIS LOW COULD BE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED IN ITS EASTWARD
MOVEMENT AND ITS PROGRESS SHOULD BE WATCHED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR PERSONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM.
THE BRISTOL BAY REGION FROM PORT HEIDEN TO NAKNEK WILL SEE SOME SNOW
AND BLOWING OR DRIFTING SNOW AS THIS LOW MOVES EASTWARD. HOWEVER IT
WILL BE WEAKENING SO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
WHERE THEY ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AREA OF BRISTOL BAY WEST OF NAKNEK AND NORTHWARD TOWARD BETHEL
WILL SEE SNOWFALL AS THE FRONTAL ZONE EAST OF THE LOW IN BRISTOL BAY
AND THE ONE NEAR THE BERING STRAIT WILL KEEP MOISTURE AND LIFTING
OVER THE AREA. THIS SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT IN THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA BUT WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY FOR THE BRISTOL BAY
ZONE.
THERE IS A WEAKENING FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THAT HAS
BROUGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE NORTH GULF COAST TODAY. THIS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS A QUESTION ABOUT HOW LONG THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER FROM EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND
EASTWARD. WHILE THE BEST DYNAMIC LIFT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ARE WITH
THE FRONT THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM THE MOUNTAINS MAY KEEP
PRECIPITATION AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALDEZ THROUGH
THOMPSON PASS. SNOW WILL INCREASE AGAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
TOMORROW AS THE LOW IN BRISTOL BAY MOVE INTO THE AREA.
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS THOUGH TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE KNIK RIVER VALLEY
WILL DIMINISH BY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE SCALE
RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE EASTERN BERING SEA INTO THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR. THIS SETUP WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH THE STATE AS AN ARCTIC HIGH DESCENDS INTO THE
EASTERN INTERIOR. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY HOLD THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 181.
MARINE...GALE 175 176 180. STORM 179.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAR 13