Gale Warning 191, NWS Anchorage, AK

584 
FZAK52 PAFC 191300
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 19 2013

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-200300-
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 960 MB LOW 350 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 230NM WEST OF ST
PAUL AS IT WEAKENS TO 986 MB THU MORNING. A 985 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH
OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AS IT WEAKENS TO
983 MB THU MORNING. A 977 MB LOW 220 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR TUE
EVENING WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE SECOND LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-200300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 19 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
25 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-200300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 19 2013

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 25
FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT TOWARD MORNING. RAIN. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 28 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-200300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 19 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT DURING THE EVENING.  SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ165-200300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 19 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM PORT
MOLLER E...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY E OF PORT MOLLER. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY E OF PORT
MOLLER. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-200300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 19 2013

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-200300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 19 2013

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...BERING SIDE...NW WIND 45 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...NW WIND 55 KT BECOMING W 45 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E OF DUTCH HARBOR...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF DUTCH HARBOR...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25
KT. SEAS 9 FT BERING SIDE...12 FT PACIFIC SIDE. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 29 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-200300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 19 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-200300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 19 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT BERING SIDE...15 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SNOW.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT
BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-200300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 19 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC SIDE. FREEZING SPRAY W OF 179W. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-200300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 19 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY E OF SHEMYA. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT BERING SIDE...18 FT PACIFIC
SIDE. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT W 20 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 11 FT
BERING SIDE...16 FT PACIFIC SIDE. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-200300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 19 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 40 KT
DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE WIND 25 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-200300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AKST TUE FEB 19 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  

$$
TP/CC

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
200 PM AKST MON FEB 18 2013

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODEL SYNOPTIC INITIALIZATIONS REASONABLE. THE
ECMWF APPEARS TO HANDLE THE STORM TRACK BEST WITH THE NEXT LOW THE
MOVES TOWARD THE AK PEN TONIGHT/TUE. THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO TAKE THE
CENTER INTO BRISTOL BAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CENTER JUST SOUTH
OF THE AK PEN BEFORE SLIDING THE CENTER INTO THE GULF. THE ECMWF
TRACK SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE ICE EDGE AND
COLD DOME OVER THE SW MAINLAND SHOULD HELP TO HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
AND FORCE THE APPROACHING LOW CENTER TO STAY FURTHER SOUTH. AFTERNOON
PACKAGES WILL BE BASED ON PART ON THE ECMWF...WITH A LITTLE NAM IN
THE FIRST 24 HRS IN THE EAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
CLEARING SKIES ARE FOLLOWING A TROUGH WHICH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
NORTH GULF AND COPPER RIVER BASIN TODAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR TO SUPPORT SNOW WITH SYSTEM. THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT EVERY
STRONG...SO SHOULD NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
WITH TROUGH PASSAGE. A STRONG LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA PRODUCED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS SLOWLY
WEAKENING AND DRIFTING NW. THE TEMPS ARE WARMING AS THE FRONTAL
TROUGH DRIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES OVER THE SW MAINLAND
ARE MODERATING SOME THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER SPREADS OVER THE
AREA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

.SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CLEARING SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CLEARS THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING CLOUDS SPREAD TO THE WEST/SOUTH GULF AS WELL AS THE KENAI
PEN EARLY TUE MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING
FRONTAL TROUGH. EXPECT THAT THE THE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW
AT KODIAK...BUT SHOULD SHIFT TO RAIN OR MIX BY AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOULD IMPACT THE NORTH GULF TUE AFTERNOON/EVE WITH SOME
SPILLING OVER THE COLD AIR INLAND. TEMPS MAY WARM ENOUGH OVERNIGHT
TUE NIGHT ALONG THAT COASTS TO PRODUCE A SNOW/RAIN MIX. BLOWING SNOW
OVER THE EASTERN KENAI PEN(PORTAGE VALLEY/EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM) MAY
BE A CONCERN...BUT IT IS FELT AT THIS POINT THAT THE TEMPS MAY WARM
TOO MUCH FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

.SW ALASKA...
WIND CHILLS OVER THE DELTA WILL MODERATE SOME THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER EVEN THOUGH SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING MORE DOUBTFUL OVER THE BRISTOL BAY
ZONE TUE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACK IS EXPECTED TO GO FURTHER SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW TRACK TO
CONTINUE THE BLIZZARD WATCH. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MIXED OVER THE AK
PEN WITH THE INITIAL APPROACH OF THE LOW TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE
SNOW ON BLOWING SNOW BEHIND CENTER ON TUE AS THE CENTER TRACKS EAST.

.BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...

STORM CENTER OVER THE EAST CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE NW AND WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. COLD AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN QUADS OF THE CENTER AS THE FLOW BACKS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION. SO LOOK FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AS THIS CENTER
TRACKS NW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE AREA LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN LATER
THIS WEEK AS MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO STATIONARY
RIDGES OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS SETUP WILL
CAUSE MUCH OF THE STATE TO MOVE INTO A STAGNANT WEATHER
PATTERN...WITH FEW FAST MOVING OR DEEP SYSTEMS TO SPEAK OF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 161 AND BLIZZARD WARNING 131(THOMPSON PASS)
MARINE...STORM...155 185 411 412 413
         GALE...120 125 132 138 140 150 160 165 170 172 175 176 180
                195 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC FEB 13
120 125 132 138 140