Blizzard Warning 14, NWS Anchorage, AK

055 
WWAK41 PAFC 200037
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
337 PM AKST TUE FEB 19 2013

AKZ125-201500-
/X.CON.PAFC.BZ.W.0014.130220T0200Z-130220T1500Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
337 PM AKST TUE FEB 19 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKST WEDNESDAY
FOR PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM...

* LOCATION...PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM.

* SNOW...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION 4 TO 8 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS.

* WIND...EAST TO SOUTHEAST 35 TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...STRONGER WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE
  THROUGH THE NIGHT. TOWARD MORNING WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
  VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE.

* IMPACTS...SNOWFALL COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW 
  WILL PRODUCE WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS. DRIVING WILL BE VERY 
  DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ALL TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.

&&

$$

619 
WWAK41 PAFC 201330
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
430 AM AKST WED FEB 20 2013

AKZ125-201430-
/X.CAN.PAFC.BZ.W.0014.000000T0000Z-130220T1500Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
430 AM AKST WED FEB 20 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELED THE
BLIZZARD WARNING.


$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
525 AM AKST TUE FEB 19 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THE FIRST...AND DEEPEST...IS
CENTERED WELL NORTH OF SHEMYA AND TRACKING OFF TO THE WEST. THIS IS
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA. THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL BECOME THE
NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND IS IT MOVES IN THE GULF
LATE THIS EVENING. A RIDGE OVER THE INTERIOR CONTINUES TO HOLD...BUT
WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE NORTHWARD TODAY.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH REGARDS TO
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC FEATURES. ONE DISAGREEMENT THEY DO HAVE IS WITH
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION TO BRING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THIS
EVENING. THE NAM/GFS/WRF ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF THE DELTA...WHILE THE EC KEEPS IT MOSTLY IN
BRISTOL BAY. THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE PREFERED THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE NAM/GFS/WRF. DISAGREEMENTS THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH A SECONDARY LOW THAT FORMS BEHIND THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN LOW AS IT
MOVES INTO THE GULF. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH RAPIDLY
DEEPENING THIS LOW...WHILE THE GFS/EC KEEP THIS AS A WEAK LOW OR WAVE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
.SOUTHCENTRAL...SOUTHCENTRAL WILL SEE A SHORT LIVED PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER TODAY...BUT THEN COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WET
AND WINDY WEATHER THIS EVENING AS THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN LOW MOVES INTO
THE GULF. DOWNSLOPING WILL OCCUR FROM THE NORTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA...ANCHORAGE BOWL...AND MATANUSKA VALLEY FROM THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO VERY LITTLE. THE BIGGER
ISSUE THIS EVENING WILL BE WITH STRONG WINDS ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM.
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AND
PORTAGE VALLEY THIS EVENING.

.SOUTHWEST...THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING EASTERN ALEUTIAN LOW WILL QUICKLY
SPREAD SNOW AND WIND FROM THE SOUTH STARTING WITH BRISTOL BAY THIS
MORNING...THEN SPREADING TO AREAS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AND BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS
FOR BRISTOL BAY...A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF KING SALMON
FROM THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS THE SAME AREA THAT WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY
NORTH WINDS. ANOTHER CONCERN FROM THIS LOW IS WITH POSSIBLE HIGH
WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.

.BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER ON THE SHORT
TERM WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY. SIMILAR TO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA...HIGH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CHANNELED TERRAIN NEAR DUTCH HARBOR.
OTHERWISE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL HAVE CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SHOWERS AS A SERIES OF WESTERN BERING LOWS PASS
THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK WILL BECOME
LESS ACTIVE THAN THE CURRENT ONE. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A PACIFIC RIDGE
NOSES NORTHWARD...PREVENTING ANY DEEP OR FAST MOVING SYSTEMS INTO THE
AREA.  THIS SETUP LOOKS TO THEN BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
PACIFIC RIDGE MOVES OVER THE WESTERN COAST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED
STATES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING 161
MARINE...STORM...150 155 170
         GALE...120 125 130 132 138 140 160 165 171 172 175 176 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...140 141 165
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DEK FEB 13