Gale Warning 147, NWS Anchorage, AK

932 
FZAK51 PAFC 030718 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 2 2013

UPDATED ZONE 130 140

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-031500-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND PUSH INLAND BY SUN AFTERNOON. A 979 MB LOW
NEAR SAND POINT SUN AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO NEAR KING SALMON AT 992 
MB BY MON AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ120-031500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 2 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING S TOWARD MORNING. ALONG THE COAST OF
MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. ALONG THE COAST E OF MONTAGUE ISLAND...E WIND
30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 10 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-031500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 2 2013

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ125-031500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 2 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE.
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ126-031500-
PORT VALDEZ
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 2 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ127-031500-
VALDEZ NARROWS
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 2 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ128-031500-
VALDEZ ARM
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 2 2013

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
$$

PKZ129-031500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 2 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-031500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
1020 PM AKST SAT FEB 2 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. FROM THE BARREN ISLANDS E...E WIND 35 KT
BECOMING SW 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. FROM THE BARREN ISLANDS W...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS
13 FT EXCEPT 5 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT EXCEPT NE 30 KT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SEAS 13 FT EXCEPT 7 FT W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-031500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 2 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

PKZ136-031500-
CHINIAK BAY
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 2 2013

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ137-031500-
MARMOT BAY
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 2 2013

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-031500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 2 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-031500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
1020 PM AKST SAT FEB 2 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 20 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-031500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 2 2013

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 1 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF THE
STATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A BROAD AND BAGGY UPPER LEVEL LOW
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. FROM THIS LOW EXTENDS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THEN
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITION
WORKS ITS WAY NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY BY SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE WEAKENING. AN ACCOMPANYING 974 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL DRIFT NORTH AND STRENGTHEN TO 966 MB SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE WEAKENING TO 980 MB OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW AROUND THIS
CENTER OF ACTION WILL MEAN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR AT LEAST SOME PERIOD DURING
THE WEEKEND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE LOCKED IN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN AND ARE SHOWING MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY THAN YESTERDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES WORTH NOTING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE VERY CLOSE IN THE
SOLUTION IN THE BERING SEA AND SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE LOW IN THE REGION THAN THE NAM. IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP A TRIPLE POINT LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND FRIDAY AND MOVE IT TOWARD MONTAGUE ISLAND BY SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS LOW AS MUCH AND MERELY HINTS AT THAT
FEATURE ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTION FITS THE
DYNAMIC PATTERN BETTER AND WILL BE PREFERRED IN THE GULF DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD. AFTER THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS
LARGELY DISSIPATED AS THE NEXT FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AND
INCREASED THE MIXING OF THE AIRMASS. THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AND WILL CAUSE MOSTLY RAIN ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS. AREAS FARTHER INLAND WILL LARGELY BE DOWN SLOPED
OUT. HOWEVER THERE DOES REMAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE
UPPER COOK INLET REGION AS COOLER NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT AND WARMER AIR ALOFT THAT
IS ABOVE FREEZING IS OVER-RUNNING THIS COOLER AIR.

SOUTHWEST...THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS RAPIDLY
WEAKENING BUT IS STILL PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW IN
THE BRISTOL BAY AREA WEST OF KING SALMON. AREAS CLOSER TO THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE PRECIPITATION DOWN SLOPED OUT
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WELL.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE STRONG LOW MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
PACIFIC TOWARD THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND ELONGATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA.
AREAS ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WEST OF THIS LOW WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS
WHEREAS IT WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN IN THE ALEUTIANS EAST OF THE LOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT WEATHER MAP WITH THE JET STREAM DISPLACEMENT FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEAK DECAYING FRONTS APPROACHING THE MAINLAND. HOWEVER A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN IS ON THE HORIZON WITH A DEEP LOW MOVING OVER THE
BERING SEA SENDING ANOTHER ROUND OF DISTURBANCES TOWARD THE MAINLAND
IN THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 140 172 175 176 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 13