Gale Warning 114, NWS Anchorage, AK

862 
FZAK61 PAFC 022357
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 2 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-031500-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 2 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND PUSH INLAND BY SUN AFTERNOON. A 979 MB LOW AT
55N 160W SUN AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 59N 156W AT 992 MB BY MON
AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ351-031500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 2 2013

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
$$

PKZ352-031500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 2 2013

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 1 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR OF THE
STATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A BROAD AND BAGGY UPPER LEVEL LOW
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. FROM THIS LOW EXTENDS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THEN
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE THIS WEEKEND WHILE THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITION
WORKS ITS WAY NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY BY SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE WEAKENING. AN ACCOMPANYING 974 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL DRIFT NORTH AND STRENGTHEN TO 966 MB SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE WEAKENING TO 980 MB OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW AROUND THIS
CENTER OF ACTION WILL MEAN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR AT LEAST SOME PERIOD DURING
THE WEEKEND.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE LOCKED IN ON THE OVERALL PATTERN AND ARE SHOWING MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY THAN YESTERDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES WORTH NOTING. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE VERY CLOSE IN THE
SOLUTION IN THE BERING SEA AND SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
MOVEMENT OF THE LARGE LOW IN THE REGION THAN THE NAM. IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP A TRIPLE POINT LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND FRIDAY AND MOVE IT TOWARD MONTAGUE ISLAND BY SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS LOW AS MUCH AND MERELY HINTS AT THAT
FEATURE ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTION FITS THE
DYNAMIC PATTERN BETTER AND WILL BE PREFERRED IN THE GULF DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD. AFTER THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL...WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS
LARGELY DISSIPATED AS THE NEXT FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION AND
INCREASED THE MIXING OF THE AIRMASS. THIS FRONT IS ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION AND WILL CAUSE MOSTLY RAIN ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS. AREAS FARTHER INLAND WILL LARGELY BE DOWN SLOPED
OUT. HOWEVER THERE DOES REMAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE
UPPER COOK INLET REGION AS COOLER NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT AND WARMER AIR ALOFT THAT
IS ABOVE FREEZING IS OVER-RUNNING THIS COOLER AIR.

SOUTHWEST...THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA IS RAPIDLY
WEAKENING BUT IS STILL PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW IN
THE BRISTOL BAY AREA WEST OF KING SALMON. AREAS CLOSER TO THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE PRECIPITATION DOWN SLOPED OUT
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WELL.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...THE STRONG LOW MOVING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
PACIFIC TOWARD THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND ELONGATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA.
AREAS ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WEST OF THIS LOW WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS
WHEREAS IT WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN IN THE ALEUTIANS EAST OF THE LOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
CURRENT WEATHER MAP WITH THE JET STREAM DISPLACEMENT FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEAK DECAYING FRONTS APPROACHING THE MAINLAND. HOWEVER A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN IS ON THE HORIZON WITH A DEEP LOW MOVING OVER THE
BERING SEA SENDING ANOTHER ROUND OF DISTURBANCES TOWARD THE MAINLAND
IN THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 140 172 175 176 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 13