Gale Warning 128, NWS Anchorage, AK

203 
FZAK61 PAFC 151217
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 15 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-160300-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 998 MB LOW IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND
WEAKEN THROUGH SAT MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF SAT AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A 999 MB LOW
NEAR 57N 152W LATE SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-160300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 15 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING W WIND 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-160300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 15 2013

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S TO W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

740 
FZAK61 PAFC 152358
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 15 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-161500-
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1003 MB LOW NEAR 61N 147W WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND DISSIPATE
SAT MORNING. A 991 MB LOW NEAR 54N 164W SAT AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO
59N 149W AT 992 MB SUN AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ351-161500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 15 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-161500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 15 2013

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

JM

312 
FZAK61 PAFC 161206
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-170300-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 991 MB LOW NEAR 55N 160W THIS EVENING WILL MOVE TO
57N 151W AT 994 MB SUN AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE TO 58N 141W LATE SUN
NIGHT AT 1000 MB.

$$

PKZ351-170300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S TO W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-170300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 30 TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

533 
FZAK61 PAFC 162359
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-171500-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 993 MB LOW NEAR 54N 164W WILL MOVE NEAR 59N 147W AT 997 MB SUN
EVENING. IT WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO 1004 MB
MON AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ351-171500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-171500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

JM

091 
FZAK61 PAFC 171226
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 17 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-180300-
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 998 MB LOW NEAR 58N 151W WILL MOVE TO 59N 148W AT 996 MB THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN TO 1008 MB AS IT MOVES TO 59N 144W TUE
MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-180300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 17 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-180300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST SUN FEB 17 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 15 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

106 
FZAK61 PAFC 172356
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 17 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-181500-
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 995 MB LOW NEAR 59N 148W WILL MOVE TO 58N 143W MON AFTERNOON
AND WEAKEN TO 1001 MB. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 59N 142W TUE
MORNING AND DISSIPATE BY TUE EVENING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF TUE AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ351-181500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 17 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT.
SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ352-181500-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST SUN FEB 17 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

JM

554 
FZAK61 PAFC 181613
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST MON FEB 18 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-190300-
400 AM AKST MON FEB 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 997 MB LOW NEAR 57N 142W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 59N 142W AS IT WEAKENS
TO 1006 MB TUE MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE TUE EVENING. A 989 MB NORTH
PACIFIC LOW ON TUE MORNING WILL MOVE TO 58N 151W AS IT WEAKENS TO 980
MB WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-190300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 AM AKST MON FEB 18 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15
FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-190300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 AM AKST MON FEB 18 2013

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 15 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

194 
FZAK61 PAFC 190034
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST MON FEB 18 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-191200-
400 PM AKST MON FEB 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DISSIPATES
TUESDAY NIGHT. A DEVELOPING NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 57N 145W AT
977 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ351-191200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W
400 PM AKST MON FEB 18 2013

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 10
FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ352-191200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W
400 PM AKST MON FEB 18 2013

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU FEB 14 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG JET THAT IS MOVING OFF THE
ASIAN CONTINENT OVER JAPAN SPLITS IN TWO NEAR 35N 170E. THE NORTHERN
LOBE OF THE JET REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BUT THEN
TURNS SHARPLY NORTHEAST AROUND A TROUGH NEAR 40N 150W AND THEN
EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS JET IS PROVIDING ENERGY
FOR A LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TODAY.
OTHER THAN THE LOCATION OF THE JET STREAM THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES ARE NOT TOO EXCITING WITH A FLATTENED RIDGE OVER THE
ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING OUT OF THE CHUKCHI SEA OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 40N 150W.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A LARGE LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA THAT ENCOMPASSES THE MAJORITY OF THE MAINLAND PART OF THE
STATE. THIS LOW IS RAPIDLY SLOWING ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT AND WEAKENING
AT THE SAME TIME. AS THIS HAPPENS A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE MAIN LOW WILL MOVE INTO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND UNTIL IT DISSIPATES SATURDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL CAUSE THE
LOW THE SOUND TO WEAKEN.
SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THERE IS ANOTHER STRONG LOW WHICH
IS HEADING TOWARD THE AREA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS
ALREADY SENDING HIGHER CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND IT WILL
MOVE OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL WITH THE OVER PATTERN AND
SEEM TO BE LOCKED IN PRETTY GOOD THE THE MOVEMENT OF THE MAJOR
FEATURES. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN MODELS THAT WILL MAKE
A DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECASTS THOUGH. IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THE
NAM, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL HAVE A MESO LOW DEVELOPING IN
COOK INLET OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WEAKENS.
THE GFS IS WEAKENING THE LOW AS WELL BUT DOES NOT CATCH THE EXTENT
THAT THE LOW IS BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AND KEEPS THE ENERGY TOO
CONSOLIDATED AROUND A SINGLE CENTER. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ALREADY
SHOWING THAT NOT TO BE THE CASE SO THE GFS IS NOT BEING USED IN THE
SHORT TERM FOR THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE OTHER MODEL DIFFERENCE OF NOTE IS THE SPEED AT WHICH THE MODELS
PUSH THROUGH THE TROUGH WHICH WILL END THE SNOWFALL. THE NAM MOVES IT
EAST OF THE ANCHORAGE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WHICH WOULD KEEP SOME SNOW IN THE ANCHORAGE
AND MAT-SU AREAS THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING FRIDAY.

OUT WEST THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT THAT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION AND SOME
BLOWING SNOW TO THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. THE
NAM IS A BIT TOO SLOW IN MOVING THIS LOW AND WAS NOT USED FOR THAT
FEATURE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF IS WEAKENING AND
WILL BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND IT LOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. THIS WILL ALLOW A MESO-LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PART
OF COOK INLET OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO REDUCE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. THE BIG IMPACT FROM THAT IS THAT IT WILL
KEEP ANY DOWN SLOPE EFFECT TO A MINIMUM FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA
THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THE VERY COLD AIR IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WILL GET PACKED UP ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SPILL OVER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA OVERNIGHT. THIS IS A
GOOD SCENARIO FOR SNOWFALL OVER THE MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THE SNOWFALL SHOULD STOP AND THERE WILL THEN
BE CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF FOG SHORTLY
AFTER AN AREA CLEARS BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MIXING OF THE AIR BEHIND
THIS TROUGH TO KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE BRISTOL BAY REGION THAT WILL
BRING SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THIS TROUGH THERE IS MUCH COLDER AIR
WHICH HAS PLUNGED TEMPERATURES IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BELOW BELOW
ZERO. THIS COLD AIR IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND BRING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURE THAN HAVE BEEN SEEN IN A FEW WEEKS TO MOST OF SOUTHWEST
ALASKA.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...THE WEATHER FRONT MOVING TO THE AREA WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS AND SNOW STARTING WITH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN SPREADING TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BIG QUESTION IN REGARDS TO THE SYSTEM IS HOW MUCH
BLOWING SNOW THERE WILL BE. THE AREA FROM KISKA EASTWARD TO NEAR
NIKOLSKI WILL LIKELY SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO SOME EXTEND THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY UNTIL IT WARMS ENOUGH TO TURN TO RAIN. AT THIS TIME
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
VISIBILITIES FROM DROPPING DOWN TO BLIZZARD LEVELS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS TO HAPPEN WILL BE IN THE UNALASKA REGION FRIDAY EVENING.
THEREFORE THERE IS A BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA FOR
FRIDAY EVENING.
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY BLOWING SNOW FROM N
FALLING SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF
THAT AREA. HOWEVER THERE COULD STILL BE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES FROM RE-SUSPENDED SNOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN THE LONG RANGE CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY A
SIBERIAN RIDGE SLIDING INTO THE BERING. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION ON THE ALEUTIAN LOW TRACK STARTING SUNDAY. THERE
IS ALSO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER TO
THE WESTERN MAINLAND...WHICH WILL LOOKS TO BRING CLEAR AND COOLER
WEATHER TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IN THE STORM TRACK
AND BRING A NUMBER OF CHANCES FOR SNOW NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 185.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176 179.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 138 140 150 155 160 165 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 13