Gale Warning 127, NWS Anchorage, AK

301 
FZAK62 PAFC 151200
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 15 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-160300-
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 970 MB LOW NEAR 44N 173E WILL MOVE TO 47N 178W AT 992 MB LATE
TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE...THEN A NEW LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 52N 168W AT
990 MB. THAT LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 53N 163W LATE SAT NIGHT AND
DISSIPATE WHILE ANOTHER LOW FORMS NEAR 55N 157W SUN AFTERNOON AT 996
MB. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST BERING SEA SAT
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-160300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 15 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO NE 30 TO 40 KT BY
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. NORTH OF 
56N...VARIABLE WIND TO 15 KT BECOMING E 15 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
NORTH OF 56N. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF
56N. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
$$

PKZ412-160300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 15 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND TO 15 KT BECOMING E 15 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
$$

PKZ413-160300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 15 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
$$

PKZ414-160300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST FRI FEB 15 2013

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF 56N. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.  
$$

702 
FZAK62 PAFC 152357
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 15 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-161500-
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 15 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 975 MB LOW NEAR 46N 180 WILL MOVE TO 54N 164W SAT AFTERNOON AT 991
MB AND THEN MAINTAIN STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
ALASKA SUN.

$$

PKZ411-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 15 2013

...STORM WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
55N. 
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 23
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N. 
.SUN...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 15 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 15 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT SUBSIDING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 19 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-161500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST FRI FEB 15 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.  

$$

479 
FZAK62 PAFC 161246
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-170300-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 991 MB LOW NEAR 52N 168W WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA LATE TONIGHT. A 960 MB LOW WILL APPROACH 50N 164E
LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT
WHILE WEAKENING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
LATE TONIGHT. A 970 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 53N 179W LATE
SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-170300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT...EXCEPT 10 T0 15 FT N OF
56N. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.TONIGHT...S OF 56N...E WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. N OF
56N...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-170300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 22 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 27 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-170300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
55N. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 55N IN THE MORNING. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-170300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
55N. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.  

$$
TP/CC

429 
FZAK62 PAFC 162359
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-171500-
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 993 MB LOW NEAR 54N 164W WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
SUN MORNING. A 960 MB LOW AT 47N 166E WILL MOVE TO 51N 161E AT 968 MB
SUN EVENING. A 985 MB LOW NEAR 48N 178W SUN AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO
56N 175E AT 958 MB MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 24 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY 
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING NE 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT BUILDING TO 26 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY 
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N. 
.MON...E WIND 60 KT. SEAS 31 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT INCREASING TO 60 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT BUILDING TO 28 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...SE WIND 60 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 32 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 23 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 20 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 54N. 
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 55 KT. SEAS 21 FT BUILDING TO 27 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N IN THE EVENING. 
.MON...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-171500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AKST SAT FEB 16 2013

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...S OF 57N...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. N OF 57N...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU FEB 14 2013

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG JET THAT IS MOVING OFF THE
ASIAN CONTINENT OVER JAPAN SPLITS IN TWO NEAR 35N 170E. THE NORTHERN
LOBE OF THE JET REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS BUT THEN
TURNS SHARPLY NORTHEAST AROUND A TROUGH NEAR 40N 150W AND THEN
EXTENDS INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS JET IS PROVIDING ENERGY
FOR A LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TODAY.
OTHER THAN THE LOCATION OF THE JET STREAM THE OTHER UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES ARE NOT TOO EXCITING WITH A FLATTENED RIDGE OVER THE
ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING OUT OF THE CHUKCHI SEA OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THEN
SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 40N 150W.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A LARGE LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA THAT ENCOMPASSES THE MAJORITY OF THE MAINLAND PART OF THE
STATE. THIS LOW IS RAPIDLY SLOWING ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT AND WEAKENING
AT THE SAME TIME. AS THIS HAPPENS A SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE MAIN LOW WILL MOVE INTO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND UNTIL IT DISSIPATES SATURDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL CAUSE THE
LOW THE SOUND TO WEAKEN.
SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THERE IS ANOTHER STRONG LOW WHICH
IS HEADING TOWARD THE AREA. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS
ALREADY SENDING HIGHER CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND IT WILL
MOVE OVER THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
CENTER OF THE LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE DOING WELL WITH THE OVER PATTERN AND
SEEM TO BE LOCKED IN PRETTY GOOD THE THE MOVEMENT OF THE MAJOR
FEATURES. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN MODELS THAT WILL MAKE
A DIFFERENCE IN THE FORECASTS THOUGH. IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THE
NAM, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL HAVE A MESO LOW DEVELOPING IN
COOK INLET OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WEAKENS.
THE GFS IS WEAKENING THE LOW AS WELL BUT DOES NOT CATCH THE EXTENT
THAT THE LOW IS BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AND KEEPS THE ENERGY TOO
CONSOLIDATED AROUND A SINGLE CENTER. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ALREADY
SHOWING THAT NOT TO BE THE CASE SO THE GFS IS NOT BEING USED IN THE
SHORT TERM FOR THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE OTHER MODEL DIFFERENCE OF NOTE IS THE SPEED AT WHICH THE MODELS
PUSH THROUGH THE TROUGH WHICH WILL END THE SNOWFALL. THE NAM MOVES IT
EAST OF THE ANCHORAGE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WHICH WOULD KEEP SOME SNOW IN THE ANCHORAGE
AND MAT-SU AREAS THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING FRIDAY.

OUT WEST THE GFS AND ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE A VERY SIMILAR SOLUTION TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT THAT WILL BRING PRECIPITATION AND SOME
BLOWING SNOW TO THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. THE
NAM IS A BIT TOO SLOW IN MOVING THIS LOW AND WAS NOT USED FOR THAT
FEATURE.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF IS WEAKENING AND
WILL BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND IT LOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. THIS WILL ALLOW A MESO-LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PART
OF COOK INLET OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL HELP TO REDUCE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. THE BIG IMPACT FROM THAT IS THAT IT WILL
KEEP ANY DOWN SLOPE EFFECT TO A MINIMUM FROM THE KENAI PENINSULA
THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THE VERY COLD AIR IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WILL GET PACKED UP ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES BUT WILL
BEGIN TO SPILL OVER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA OVERNIGHT. THIS IS A
GOOD SCENARIO FOR SNOWFALL OVER THE MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THE SNOWFALL SHOULD STOP AND THERE WILL THEN
BE CLEARING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF FOG SHORTLY
AFTER AN AREA CLEARS BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MIXING OF THE AIR BEHIND
THIS TROUGH TO KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE BRISTOL BAY REGION THAT WILL
BRING SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THIS TROUGH THERE IS MUCH COLDER AIR
WHICH HAS PLUNGED TEMPERATURES IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BELOW BELOW
ZERO. THIS COLD AIR IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND BRING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURE THAN HAVE BEEN SEEN IN A FEW WEEKS TO MOST OF SOUTHWEST
ALASKA.

ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA...THE WEATHER FRONT MOVING TO THE AREA WILL
BRING STRONG WINDS AND SNOW STARTING WITH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN SPREADING TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE BIG QUESTION IN REGARDS TO THE SYSTEM IS HOW MUCH
BLOWING SNOW THERE WILL BE. THE AREA FROM KISKA EASTWARD TO NEAR
NIKOLSKI WILL LIKELY SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO SOME EXTEND THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY UNTIL IT WARMS ENOUGH TO TURN TO RAIN. AT THIS TIME
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
VISIBILITIES FROM DROPPING DOWN TO BLIZZARD LEVELS. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS TO HAPPEN WILL BE IN THE UNALASKA REGION FRIDAY EVENING.
THEREFORE THERE IS A BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA FOR
FRIDAY EVENING.
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY BLOWING SNOW FROM N
FALLING SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF
THAT AREA. HOWEVER THERE COULD STILL BE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES FROM RE-SUSPENDED SNOW.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN THE LONG RANGE CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY A
SIBERIAN RIDGE SLIDING INTO THE BERING. THIS WILL PREVENT THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION ON THE ALEUTIAN LOW TRACK STARTING SUNDAY. THERE
IS ALSO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THIS RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER TO
THE WESTERN MAINLAND...WHICH WILL LOOKS TO BRING CLEAR AND COOLER
WEATHER TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA IN THE STORM TRACK
AND BRING A NUMBER OF CHANCES FOR SNOW NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WATCH 185.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 155 160 165 170 171 172 175 176 179.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 138 140 150 155 160 165 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FEB 13