Tornado Warning 17, NWS Aberdeen, SD

674 
WWUS53 KABR 112216
SVSABR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
516 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

MNC155-112226-
/O.EXP.KABR.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-131011T2215Z/
TRAVERSE MN-
516 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR CENTRAL TRAVERSE COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4590 9625 4588 9625 4571 9644 4574 9649
      4595 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 202DEG 30KT 4577 9643

$$
PARKIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
224 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

MAJOR STORM NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA WITH A LINE OF
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST CWA. SO FAR SINCE THE WATCH ISSUANCE
HAVENT SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF ROTATION WITH CELLS. BUT THERE IS
STILL SOME POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS
EAST AND NORTH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA. MOST OF THE THREAT
OF RAIN MOVES NORTH OF THE REGION TNT. HOWEVER A FOLLOW ON S/W
ROTATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TNT WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK DRY AND
CHILLY...ALTHOUGH NOT FAR OFF SEASONAL NORMS. DID ADD FROST TO THE
GRIDS GIVEN EXPECTED LOWS RIGHT AROUND 30 OR EVEN A COUPLE DEGREES
COLDER IN THE LOW LYING AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY MODELS
ARE HINTING AT A WEAK BAROCLINIC/WAA ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/WESTERN CWA. FOR NOW SCT POPS LOOK FINE. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND LOOKS
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AT IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH STRONG UVM/Q
VECTOR CONVERGE OVER THE CWA. HIGH SCT/LOW LIKELY POPS SHOULD
SUFFICE FOR NOW. THAT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD FAVOR MORE
RAIN/SHOWERS GIVEN EXPECTED STABILITY/COOL TEMPS AND PCPN.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WONT BE TOO FAR OFF SEASONAL NORMS UNTIL
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THEY TURN COLDER.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED. MODELS ARE IN A PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...WITH MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT BEING A WASHOUT WITH LIGHT/MODERATE RAINFALL. THE BIGGEST
ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WHEN WILL PRECIPITATION END. THE 0/12Z
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST MODEL WITH KEEPING PRECIPITATION
ONGOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CANADIAN IS THE NEXT
SLOWEST...WHICH KEEPS LIGHT PCPN GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE GFS IS STILL THE QUICKEST AND MOVES THE PCPN OUT OF THE CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN ALLBLEND POP GUIDANCE WHICH KEEPS SCHC GOING
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND BEYOND. THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION OF
A WARMING TREND ANYTIME SOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WIDE RANGE OF FLYING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...HOWEVER MVFR PERHAPS IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS STORMS ROTATE COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN
TOWARDS 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-
     HAMLIN-HAND-HYDE-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-
     WALWORTH.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
454 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-121000-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-BROWN-MARSHALL-
ROBERTS-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DAY-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-
LYMAN-BUFFALO-
454 AM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013 /354 AM MDT FRI OCT 11 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A COMBINATION OF
RAIN...WIND...AND SEVERE STORMS TO THE REGION.

FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE. FURTHER EAST...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...THE LOW CENTER WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...SO
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE WIND SPEEDS DROP OFF BEFORE SWITCHING
TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND INCREASING ONCE AGAIN. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ADDITIONALLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WHOLE REGION
TODAY...WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL A THREAT. HOWEVER...THE AREA
OF GREATEST CONCERN IS ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE
AIRMASS WILL BECOME MILDLY UNSTABLE ALONG A WARM FRONT. COMBINED
WITH SPIN PRESENT IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THERE
IS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO ACROSS THIS REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

SERR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
324 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 13 NNW SANSARC          44.67N 101.14W
10/11/2013  M59 MPH          STANLEY            SD   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABR1300868

WFOABR