Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
310 PM MDT WED JUN 5 2013

.DISCUSSION...
BUSY DAY HAS UNFOLDED OVER NEW MEXICO AS THE FRONT ARRIVED EARLIER
WITH A STRONG PUNCH OF MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE HAVE RISEN TO THE 40S AND
50S...AND SOME MODIFIED 30 DEGREE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO FILTERED
INTO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A STRONGER REINFORCEMENT
OF COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS...NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
TUCUMCARI TOWARD LAS VEGAS. STORMS QUICKLY EXPLOITED UPSLOPE
FORCING AND MOISTURE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO DO SO WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 280 WILL RUN THROUGH 9 PM MDT...COVERING THE
SANGRES EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. UNION COUNTY
MAY BE TOO STABLE TO OBSERVE MUCH THUNDER FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR. THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE A
SHOT OF SOME SEVERE STORMS ALSO...BUT WILL LIKELY BE A LATER SHOW
THIS EVENING.

THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL ADVANCE FARTHER WEST TONIGHT...AND THE
EXTENT OF THIS PROGRESSION WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON THE DEPTH AND
SPATIAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. A MODERATE TO STRONG GAP/CANYON WIND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND MOISTURE WILL SURGE TOWARD THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TRICKY TONIGHT WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION COMBATED BY BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN SOME CENTRAL AREAS AND PRECIPITATION.

ON THURSDAY...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A HEALTHY CROP OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE
STORMS WILL FINALLY TURN A BIT WETTER. THE ADDED
MOISTURE...CLOUDS...AND PRECIP WILL ALSO MODERATE
TEMPERATURES...RUNNING COOLER THAN AVERAGE IN THE EAST. GOOD
DIRECTIONAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT AMONG GROUND-RELATIVE WINDS WILL
SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS AGAIN.

ON FRIDAY SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN VEERING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN ZONES WHICH WILL BRING AN ONSET TO GRADUAL DRYING FROM THE
WEST. WINDS WILL BE SLOWER TO VEER IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES
FRIDAY...AND THUS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN INTACT AND SUFFICIENT FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

MORE ENHANCED DRYING TREND WILL THEN UNFOLD INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A WESTERLY SURFACE COMPONENT CONTINUES TO SWEEP INTO NM
AND A RIDGE AXIS ALOFT ELONGATES OVER THE STATE. RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS AND THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALSO YIELD WARMER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL LIKELY ALTER AND LAY OVER
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WILL KEEP A STRONG ENOUGH HOLD
THAT MOISTURE WILL NOT BE FULLY ABLE TO SEEP NORTHWARD INTO NM.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BOUNDARY PUSHED WESTWARD AND INTO RGV THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
DEWPOINTS. THIS FLOW HAS PERSISTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH HAS
VEERED SOMEWHAT WITH PARTIAL DECREASES IN DEWPOINTS. SOME INDICATION
OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING HAS ALLOWED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE...TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM. EXPECT THAT
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH AND EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EXISTS.
OTHER DRIER STORMS HAVE ERUPTED OVER NW/WCENTRAL NM WITH MOVEMENT TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST AS WELL.

RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT FROM THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EASTWARD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES BACK TO THE WEST...AND
SPILLS BACK INTO THE RGV. THIS IN TURN COULD POTENTIALLY INITIATE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION INTO THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS MODELS
INDICATE CONTINUED INSTAB THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NM. FOR AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTDVD...THE SURGE OF MOISTURE COULD BE
LIMITED...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RETURNING ELY LOW LEVEL
WINDS. RH RECOVERIES OUT THERE FOR THE MOST PART WILL RANGE FROM
GOOD TO FAIR OR EVEN POOR ALONG THE AZ BORDER.

THURSDAY COULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS COOLER AND
MORE MOIST AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN THE EASTERN PLAINS...RESULTING
IN POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. EXCELLENT VENTILATION NORTHWEST
WITH AGAIN THE WETTER SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EASTWARD AND DRIER CONVECTION WEST OF THE RGV. IT APPEARS THE
SLOSH OF MOISTURE INTO THE RGV THURSDAY NIGHT MAY NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG BUT LINGERING MOISTURE/BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WEATHER
ON FRIDAY SIMILAR TO THAT OF THURSDAY. MIN RH VALUES RANGING FROM
9 TO 15 PERCENT FORECAST FOR CONTDVD REGION WWD FRIDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND A TREND TOWARDS WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER IS STILL
INDICATED. CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO THE EAST
SATURDAY...THEN THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES OVER NEW
MEXICO...HELPING TO SHUT DOWN ANY ACTIVITY. A WEAK LEE TROUGH OVER
THE EAST WON/T CONTRIBUTE MUCH TO PCPN CHANCES EITHER. EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE BECOMES SUPPRESSED...AND DRY...WARMER THAN AVERAGE
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE RGV AS TSRA STARTING TO ERUPT OVER THE
NORTHWEST THIRD. A SECOND BOUNDARY WITH MUCH COOLER AIR PUSHING
INTO FAR NE NM WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS IN ITS WAKE. THIS BOUNDARY
NOT WELL DEPICTED BY MODELS AND COULD POTENTIALLY REACH KTCC
BETWEEN 20-22Z. SCT TSRA WITH MVFR CIGS/VBSY AND SFC WND GUSTS TO
45 KT AND POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL TO OCCASIONALLY OBSCURE MTS
CENTRAL AND WEST AND WILL TRACK GENLY EAST. MVFR CIGS TO FILL IN
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AFT 02Z WITH CIGS
BECOMING IFR AND AREAS OF BR THEREAFTER. GUSTY EAST WIND INTO THE
RGV WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT AFT 18Z BUT SHOULD RETURN BY 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  53  90  53  91 /   0   5   0   5
DULCE...........................  41  82  41  81 /  20  20  10  20
CUBA............................  48  81  44  83 /  20  20  20  20
GALLUP..........................  48  87  46  87 /   5   5   0  10
EL MORRO........................  43  82  44  83 /  10  20  20  20
GRANTS..........................  47  86  45  86 /  10  20  20  20
QUEMADO.........................  48  86  50  86 /   5  10   0  20
GLENWOOD........................  57  91  55  92 /   0   5   0  20
CHAMA...........................  38  74  38  72 /  30  30  20  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  51  75  51  79 /  30  40  40  30
PECOS...........................  47  74  49  78 /  50  50  50  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  40  75  43  74 /  50  40  40  40
RED RIVER.......................  36  68  36  67 /  60  60  50  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  34  70  34  71 /  60  50  50  50
TAOS............................  44  78  45  79 /  40  30  30  30
MORA............................  50  68  46  73 /  60  60  50  50
ESPANOLA........................  51  82  50  86 /  30  10  20  20
SANTA FE........................  51  81  51  82 /  30  30  30  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  55  84  54  85 /  30  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  61  85  60  86 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  64  87  63  88 /  20  10  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  59  89  57  90 /  20  10  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  61  89  58  90 /  20  10  20  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  63  90  59  92 /  20  10  20  10
RIO RANCHO......................  61  88  61  90 /  20  10  20  10
SOCORRO.........................  64  91  62  91 /  10  20  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  48  81  46  80 /  30  50  50  40
TIJERAS.........................  56  84  55  85 /  20  30  40  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  86  51  87 /  30  30  40  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  51  75  51  79 /  40  60  60  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  56  82  55  83 /  20  30  50  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  57  86  56  84 /  20  20  30  30
RUIDOSO.........................  49  76  49  72 /  20  50  60  50
CAPULIN.........................  48  74  48  75 /  40  50  50  50
RATON...........................  50  76  49  77 /  50  40  40  40
SPRINGER........................  53  75  51  79 /  50  40  30  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  47  71  49  74 /  60  50  50  50
CLAYTON.........................  52  75  56  81 /  40  20  30  30
ROY.............................  52  73  55  78 /  40  40  40  40
CONCHAS.........................  58  80  59  84 /  50  30  40  40
SANTA ROSA......................  61  78  58  82 /  60  30  50  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  58  79  61  83 /  50  20  40  30
CLOVIS..........................  58  76  59  80 /  50  10  50  30
PORTALES........................  60  78  62  81 /  50  10  50  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  63  79  62  83 /  50  10  50  30
ROSWELL.........................  66  83  66  83 /  30  20  50  30
PICACHO.........................  63  81  61  81 /  30  40  60  40
ELK.............................  58  78  55  76 /  30  60  60  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

52

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
552 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013

NMZ501>540-061200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
552 AM MDT WED JUN 5 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ON THE EAST CENTRAL AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

AREAS OF SMOKE FROM THE TRES LAGUNAS FIRE NEAR TERERRO AND THE
THOMPSON RIDGE FIRE NORTH OF JEMEZ SPRINGS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO 3 MILES OR LESS AND IMPACT AIR QUALITY IN THE VICINITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
HOWEVER...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN UNION...HARDING...EASTERN SAN MIGUEL...QUAY...DE
BACA...CURRY...ROOSEVELT AND CHAVES COUNTIES DUE TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
207 PM MDT WED JUN 05 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             1 SE ROCIADA            35.82N 105.41W
06/05/2013  M1.00 INCH       SAN MIGUEL         NM   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301123

AC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
246 PM MDT WED JUN 05 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             2 ESE OCATE             36.16N 105.01W
06/05/2013  E1.00 INCH       MORA               NM   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301124

JF