Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1140 AM MDT WED SEP 18 2013

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SATELLITE...RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING TRENDS POINT TOWARDS A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND MID LEVEL FRONTAL BAND PASSAGE TODAY.
THE MOST ACTIVE AREA WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRANSITION EASTWARD DURING THE
EVENING. WENT BULLISH FOR VCSH AND VCTS AND ASSOCIATED CB/S AT
MANY TERMINAL SITES. WENT WITH A TEMPO AT SAF WITH SOME MODERATE
VIS RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTIER WINDS. BUT CANT RULE OUT THAT AT ABQ
AND EVENTUALLY LVS AS THE DAY PROCEEDS. WILL DEFINITELY UPDATE
ONCE A CLEARER PICTURE OF THE STORM EFFECTS COMES INTO VIEW. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND PAST MOVING STORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE THREAT OF THE DAY. CANT RULE OUT CONVECTIVE GUSTS TO 50
KT IN THIS ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH WENT LIGHTER IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS. FOLLOWING THE DISTURBANCE PASSAGE...A BRIEF BREAK COULD
CREATE ADDITIONAL LOW CIGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS ACROSS EASTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS. THE HIGH MOUNTAIN BASINS ARE SUSCEPTIBLE BUT ALSO
THINKING PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS LIKE WHAT WAS OBSERVED
EARLIER THIS MORNING. WILL BE WATCHING ROW CLOSELY TONIGHT.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT WED SEP 18 2013...
DESPITE DRY AIR VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...RICH
LOW LAYER MOISTURE IS HANGING-ON ACROSS OUR AREA. AT 09Z...SURFACE
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.85 INCH. SO..PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY AFTER A LITTLE
DAYTIME HEATING. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
700-500MB LAPSE RATES WONT BE TOO IMPRESSIVE FOR MOST OF OUR
AREA...BUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES...LAPSE RATES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL BE
MOVING AT 20 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO
LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT...BUT WILL BE MOVING SLOWER ACROSS
THE SOUTH...CLOSER TO 10 MPH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST THURSDAY...FAVORING THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT GETTING INTO THE
MIX. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BREEZY TO WINDY EAST
CANYON WINDS DEVELOPING HERE IN THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS
FRONT WILL HELP TO RECHARGE MOISTURE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WITH BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND NAM SHOWING PWATS AT KABQ SURGING
BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING ALOFT IS REPLACED BY WESTERLIES.

BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS EARLY
NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF A POTENT EARLY SEASON WEST COAST TROUGH
WHICH MAY BE ON TRACK TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO TOWARD THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK.

11

.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY WEAK WAVE IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE
COMBINE WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IS MUCH MORE SHALLOW COMPARED WITH LAST WEEK SO WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED. LEE TROUGH WILL KEEP THE EASTERN
PLAINS BREEZY TODAY. LATEST MODELS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH WEAK
BACKDOOR FRONT. NAM AND GFS NOW BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE NE
PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING...AND THROUGH/OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS UPSLOPE EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
FAVORED FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY SATURDAY AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MOVES
INTO THE NORTH.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF NM SUNDAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A DRY ZONAL FLOW MOVES OVER THE STATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...AHEAD OF A LARGE...SEASONALLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN TOWARD MIDWEEK. GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH INTERESTINGLY HINT THAT THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE MAY TAP DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AS THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW STALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.

VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO VERY GOOD WITH THE MODERATE WEST-SW FLOW
ALOFT TODAY...TRENDING DOWN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN BACK
UP FOR THE WEEKEND.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
515 AM MDT WED SEP 18 2013

NMZ501>540-191200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
515 AM MDT WED SEP 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE THURSDAY ALONG A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST
FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

11

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