Flash Flood Warning 95, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
252 PM MDT FRI SEP 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A LIFE THREATENING AND RECORD SHATTERING WEATHER EVENT HAS UNFOLDED
OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM OVER THE PAST 72 HOURS...AND IT WILL
CONTINUE FOR MANY AREAS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD TRIBUTARY AND RIVER FLOODING IS
OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PARTICULAR OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN WHERE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS
FALLEN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS HAVE
SEEN BETWEEN 6 AND 8 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MORE STREAMING OVER THE
AREA ON RADAR.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT ON SATURDAY AS
THE MONSOON PLUME WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM.
NUMEROUS MODEL MEMBERS AND AGREEMENT FROM WPC SHOW FOCUS FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT QPF OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE FROM SOCORRO COUNTY NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL NM TO SANTA FE COUNTY...THE SANGRES...AND THE NE
PLAINS. CURRENT POPS LOOK GOOD IN GRIDS HOWEVER EXPECT CHANGES ON
FOLLOWING SHIFT TO TIDY UP FOCUS AND GREATEST IMPACT AREAS.

THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR HISTORICAL WEATHER EVENT WILL
OPEN UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING STEERING FLOW AND FLASH FLOOD
THREAT TO DIMINISH JUST A LITTLE. DUE TO EXTREMELY SATURATED SOILS
EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WILL POTENTIALLY CREATE FLOODING.
DRYING WILL THEN ENSUE BEHIND THIS WAVE ALLOWING FOR A NICE WARMING
TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD FLOODING EVENT OCCURRING ON NUMEROUS CREEKS
AND TRIBUTARIES LEADING OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPCEPTIONALLY
HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA AS THE FOCUS OF
MONSOON PLUME REMAINS OVER CENTRAL NM THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE ABOUT 5-10F BELOW NORMAL. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EVEN OF
THE MODERATE VARIETY WILL CREATE MORE FLOODING THERE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL THE FLOODING WILL SLOWLY PULL
OUT MONDAY WITH A DRYING TREND COMMENCING TUESDAY THROUGHT NEXT
WEEK. MIN HUMIDITY VALUES WILL TREND DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY HOWEVER
RECOVERIES VALUES WILL BE VERY HIGH AS DEEP SOIL MOISTURE IMPACTS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SEVERAL NIGHTS TO COME. FOG IS EVEN POSSIBLE
OVER THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL TREND MUCH LOWER AND MAX TEMPS BACK
TOWARD NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A MAJOR IMPACT PERIOD CONTINUES FOR AVIATION ACROSS NM AND THIS WILL
REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. AN ELONGATED AREA OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT ALL SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITHIN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT PERSISTENT MVFR
WITH PERIODIC EXCURSIONS TO IFR BENEATH HEAVIER SHOWERS. A LINE OF
-TSRA IS ALSO ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND MAY
IMPACT KTCC DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE ACTIVITY MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. A SECOND AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW PLATEAU
AND THEN SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN NM AS ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY. NO CHANGE IS
EXPECTED FOR THE REGION THRU AT LEAST SUNRISE SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  56  77  56  78 /  50  50  40  30
DULCE...........................  49  73  47  75 /  60  60  40  40
CUBA............................  50  72  49  76 /  60  60  40  40
GALLUP..........................  51  74  49  74 /  50  50  40  20
EL MORRO........................  49  71  47  70 /  60  60  50  30
GRANTS..........................  51  74  49  73 /  60  50  50  30
QUEMADO.........................  51  74  50  75 /  50  60  50  30
GLENWOOD........................  57  79  53  80 /  30  30  30  20
CHAMA...........................  45  67  45  67 /  60  70  50  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  52  71  53  72 /  60  60  40  40
PECOS...........................  52  69  52  68 /  60  60  50  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  47  70  48  71 /  60  50  40  60
RED RIVER.......................  42  63  43  63 /  60  70  40  80
ANGEL FIRE......................  45  66  39  65 /  60  60  40  70
TAOS............................  49  72  47  74 /  60  60  40  40
MORA............................  50  69  48  69 /  60  50  40  60
ESPANOLA........................  54  76  53  79 /  50  50  40  30
SANTA FE........................  52  72  52  72 /  60  50  40  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  54  74  54  74 /  60  50  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  54  76  58  78 /  60  40  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  59  76  60  77 /  50  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  59  78  59  80 /  50  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  58  78  58  82 /  50  40  30  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  59  79  57  80 /  50  40  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  58  78  58  81 /  60  40  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  60  81  60  83 /  40  30  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  53  73  54  77 /  60  50  50  30
TIJERAS.........................  53  73  55  74 /  60  50  40  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  52  72  51  72 /  50  40  40  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  53  70  53  71 /  60  40  50  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  55  73  54  74 /  40  30  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  58  76  57  77 /  30  20  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  54  69  53  70 /  30  20  30  20
CAPULIN.........................  53  74  52  70 /  60  20  20  60
RATON...........................  52  76  51  73 /  60  30  20  60
SPRINGER........................  53  77  51  75 /  60  30  20  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  71  50  72 /  60  40  30  50
CLAYTON.........................  58  80  59  76 /  50  20  20  50
ROY.............................  57  76  55  75 /  50  30  20  50
CONCHAS.........................  60  82  59  82 /  50  20  20  30
SANTA ROSA......................  60  79  59  79 /  50  30  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  61  84  61  85 /  40  20  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  61  82  62  83 /  30  20  20  10
PORTALES........................  60  83  61  83 /  30  20  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  62  82  60  83 /  30  20  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  64  86  62  88 /  20  20  20  10
PICACHO.........................  59  78  57  80 /  20  20  20  10
ELK.............................  56  74  54  74 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ503-504-506>533.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
632 AM MDT FRI SEP 13 2013

NMZ501>540-141245-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
632 AM MDT FRI SEP 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH THE MAIN EMPHASIS ON AREAS BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND THE HIGHLANDS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS
WELL.  ANOTHER 1 TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL ACROSS
THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME MAINSTEM RIVER
FLOODING COULD OCCUR. AREAS WITHIN AND BELOW RECENT BURN SCAR
LOCATIONS...AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN GENERAL...WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT SHOW A TREND TOWARD LESS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MAY STILL DEVELOP
FROM TIME TO TIME SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS AREAS FROM JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WEST TO
NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WHILE SOME HEAVY RUNOFF AND EVEN VERY LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
THE FLOODING RISK WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY
FLOODING THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

01

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
222 PM MDT FRI SEP 13 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0219 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CROWNPOINT              35.69N 108.15W
09/13/2013                   MCKINLEY           NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EVACUATIONS ONGOING IN CROWNPOINT DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301370

JF