Flash Flood Warning 94, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
134 PM MDT FRI SEP 13 2013

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A MAJOR IMPACT PERIOD CONTINUES FOR AVIATION ACROSS NM AND THIS WILL
REMAIN THE CASE FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. AN ELONGATED AREA OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT ALL SITES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITHIN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT PERSISTENT MVFR WITH
PERIODIC EXCURSIONS TO IFR BENEATH HEAVIER SHOWERS. A LINE OF -TSRA
IS ALSO ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND MAY IMPACT
KTCC DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE ACTIVITY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A
SECOND AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW PLATEAU AND THEN
SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN NM AS ANOTHER AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY. NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED
FOR THE REGION THRU AT LEAST SUNRISE SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS...BUT A NUMBER OF MINOR TWEAKS
TO REFLECT FORECAST MODEL CHANGES THAT HAVE OCCURRED OVER LAST
COUPLE OF SHIFTS. ALSO SOME CHANGES REFLECT THE GRADUAL SHIFT FROM
QUASI TROPICAL TO MORE CONTINENTAL AIR MASS PRECIPITATION
PROCESSES AND ALSO TRANSITION FROM THE MIXED STRATIFORM AND
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REGIME TO MORE OF A DIURNAL/CONVECTIVE
ONE.

STILL LOOKING AT ANOMOLOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND POPS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR TODAY AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO SATURDAY BEFORE COMING DOWN A
LITTLE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS . WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING AS IS IN BOTH AREAL COVERAGE AND EXPIRATION TIME. ONE COULD
MAKE AN ARGUMENT FOR TRIMMING PERHAPS A ZONE OR TWO FROM THE EAST
SIDE OF THE WATCH...BUT GIVEN HOW SATURATED SOILS ARE ACROSS WATCH
AREA DECI DED AGAINST IT.

HEAVIEST RAINFALL STILL LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY ALONG TO A LITTLE
WAYS EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO
THE NORTHERN MANZANOS...SANDIAS AND OVER TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
DO NOT BELIEVE MAX QPF TO BE QUITE AS TIGHTLY FOCUSED OR LINEAR
AS NAM...ECMWF OR CANADIAN MODELS INDICATE...BUT MORE OF A BLEND
OF THE GFS AND THE OTHER THREE.

AFTER THIS AFTN OR TONIGHT EXPECTING THE MOISTURE FEED GRADUALLY
GETTING DISRUPTED AS FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY DEVELOPS A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT WITH GRADUAL LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD BRING ABOUT THE TRANSITION FROM LARGELY TROPICAL AND
STRATIFORM COMPONENT OF RAINFALL TO THE MORE CONVECTIVE AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ASPECT FOR THE WEEKEND. BACK DOOR FRONT INTO NE
AND PERHAPS EVEN CENTRAL NM SUNDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE
UPSLOPE COMPONENT THERE AND SHOULD INCREASE RAIN COVERAGE ALONG
WITH A FEW STORMS...BUT HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND
WEST IT WILL PROGRESS BEFORE EITHER WASHING OUT OR BECOMING
STATIONARY OR PULLING OUT. AHEAD OF FRONT THOUGH DRYING SHOULD
CONTINUE AT A SLOW TO MODERATE PACE...THUS REDUCING POPS AND
COVERAGE SOMEWHAT.

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
WITH DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING UPSTREAM PATTERN EMERGING BY NEXT
WEEKEND. RIDGE CORE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH CLOSED LOW OVER
THE GREAT SALT LAKE EVOLVES WITH SHIFT OF RIDGE CORE TO EAST
TEXAS...AND TROUGH OPENING TO A WAVE AND SHEARING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DOUBLE CENTROID RIDGE
BELT WILL REBUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...WITH ONE OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...AND THE OTHER
OVER THE GULF COAST. SADDLE POINT WILL LIE SQUARELY OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS THE WORK WEEK GETS UNDERWAY.
RIDGE BELT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN THIS DOUBLE CENTER
CONFIGURATION THROUGH THURSDAY...AS PACIFIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...AND THIS FEATURE WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...RAINY WEATHER CONTINUING STATEWIDE...WITH GREATEST
INTENSITY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND BROAD SWATH OF RAIN FALL
APPROACHING AN INCH STRETCHING ALONG THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR
AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING IN THE
50S AND 60S PCT...WITH BROAD RECOVERY TO SATURATION OVER MUCH OF
THE STATE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST BREEZES MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
RATON RIDGE AREA...WITH FLOW DIRECTION MOSTLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. POOR VENTILATION OVER CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...WITH CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT IMPROVED MOVING WEST TOWARD
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ARIZONA BORDER ...AND EASTWARD ACROSS
THE PLAINS TO THE TEXAS LINE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW MID SEPTEMBER NORMALS...COOLEST OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS.

FOR SATURDAY...SHOWERY PATTERN CONTINUING...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH AND INTO THE WEST.
CONTINUED ROUNDS OF HEAVIER RAINS POSSIBLE CENTRAL AND WEST
HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST BREEZES OVERTHE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. MODEST DRYING WILL BRING MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S PCT. MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN
VENTILATION...BUT REMAINING LOCALLY POOR OVER THE NORTH.

FOR SUNDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PENETRATE NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND SHIFT SHOWER FOCUS INTO THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS
FOR THE DAY..WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE REMAINING ELSEWHERE. AWAY
FORM THE COOL INTRUSION...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES
BACK TOWARD MID SEPTEMBER NORMALS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIE4S IN THE 40S
AND 50S PCT.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURE TRENDS A
FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF MID SEPTEMBER NORMALS...AND TAPERING
OFF OF SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH MIDWEEK. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S AND 20S PCT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN DRYING CONDITIONS. LOCALLY MARGINAL VENTILATION
CONDITIONS BECOMING BROADLY FAIR OR BETTER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A LARGE AREA OF SCT-NMRS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE STREAMING
NORTHWARD FROM THE WEST-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO THE TX
BORDER OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER FAR
SOUTH- CENTRAL NM WILL MOVE NWD INTO CENTRAL NM FRIDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS INDICATING THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM CENTRAL NM TO WEST-CENTRAL AND NW
PORTIONS OF THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING . VERY HIGH
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MTN OBSCURATIONS
ALONG WITH SCT MVFR AND ISOLD IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AREAWIDE THROUGH
FRIDAY. SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO WRN NM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KGUP AND KFMN.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ503-504-506>533.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
632 AM MDT FRI SEP 13 2013

NMZ501>540-141245-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
632 AM MDT FRI SEP 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH THE MAIN EMPHASIS ON AREAS BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND THE HIGHLANDS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS
WELL.  ANOTHER 1 TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL ACROSS
THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME MAINSTEM RIVER
FLOODING COULD OCCUR. AREAS WITHIN AND BELOW RECENT BURN SCAR
LOCATIONS...AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN GENERAL...WILL BE
ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY...BUT SHOW A TREND TOWARD LESS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MAY STILL DEVELOP
FROM TIME TO TIME SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS AREAS FROM JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WEST TO
NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WHILE SOME HEAVY RUNOFF AND EVEN VERY LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
THE FLOODING RISK WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY
FLOODING THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

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