Flash Flood Warning 111, NWS Albuquerque, NM

539 
WGUS75 KABQ 152120
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 PM MDT SUN SEP 15 2013

NMC033-047-152230-
/O.CON.KABQ.FF.W.0111.000000T0000Z-130915T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN MIGUEL-MORA-
320 PM MDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM MDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL MORA AND NORTH CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES...

AT 317 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE 
INITIAL STORM THAT PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS MOVED EAST 
TOWARD WATROUS. HOWEVER....ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY 
RAIN WAS MOVING TOWARD SAPELLO...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTH OF LAS 
VEGAS...FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RADAR INDICATES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES 
OF RAIN MAY HAVE FALLEN IN A LOCALIZED AREA NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF 
SAPELLO ON HIGHWAY 518. AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO ONE INCH OF RAIN 
IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.  FLOODING IS LIKELY ALONG THE SAPELLO 
RIVER AND ALONG HIGHWAY 518. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED LOW WATER CROSSINGS. MANY
FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES.

&&

LAT...LON 3585 10496 3570 10496 3567 10528 3585 10527

$$


34

634 
WGUS75 KABQ 152223 RRA
FFSABQ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
423 PM MDT SUN SEP 15 2013

NMC033-047-152234-
/O.EXP.KABQ.FF.W.0111.000000T0000Z-130915T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN MIGUEL-MORA-
423 PM MDT SUN SEP 15 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM MDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
MORA AND NORTH CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE RAINFALL WAS
ENDING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...AND THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WAS
DIMINISHING. SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY CONTINUE...BUT THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING IS ENDING. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3585 10496 3570 10496 3567 10528 3585 10527

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1236 PM MDT SUN SEP 15 2013

.UPDATE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.
ZONES OUT SHORTLY. CHJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1201 PM MDT SUN SEP 15 2013...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA JUST STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SCT-NUM
STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN
AND LOW CIGS/VSBY LIKELY. BASED ON LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE...
ABQ/AEG AND LVS TAF SITES APPEAR TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE AT
BEING IMPACTED. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS NE NM WILL ALSO
INCREASE STORM CHANCES FROM RTN TO CAO...BUT JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
IN THE STATE WILL HAVE TS CHANCES TODAY. MT TOPS WILL
OCCASIONALLY BE OBSCURED. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

34

.PREV DISCUSSION...352 AM MDT SUN SEP 15 2013...
CURRENTLY...TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
TO THE FOUR CORNERS SWINGING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO. SOUTHWEST
FLOW OUT OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA PROVIDING AGGRESSIVE THUNDERSTORM TO
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO. MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION TAPERING OFF SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...BUT PICKING UP
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AND OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
PLETHORA OF FLOOD PRODUCTS OUT...WITH GREATEST THREAT AT PRESS
TIME OVER THE PACHECO AND JAROSO BURN SCAR AREAS...AND ALL THE
ACTION MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. STORM ACTION HAS LEFT COPIOUS
RAINFALL ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND IN ITS WAKE.
WHITEWATER CREEK ROLLING OUT OF THE WHITEWATER BALDY BURN AREA IN
CATRON COUNTY PUSHING STAGE READINGS UP TO NEARLY 30 FT...WELL
ABOVE THE AMBIENT 5 FT OF LATE...AND A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY
CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE COUNTY.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOME DISAGREEMENT LOOMING LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ON SPEED AND TIMING OF NEXT INBOUND SYSTEM. REASONABLE
CONSENSUS OUT THROUGH THE MEDIUM TERM BUILDS DOUBLE CENTROID RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH SADDLE BETWEEN CENTROIDS REMAINING
LOCKED IN OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS BASIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS PARADE OF TROUGHS PUSHING OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC
CROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE OUT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND IN GENERAL REMAINING NORTH OF NEW MEXICO.
MUCH AMPLIFIED TROUGH WILL DIG TO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST ON
FRIDAY AND WILL DRIFT TO THE FOUR CORNERS IN CONSIDERABLY
DIMINISHED FORM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF
MOVING THIS THROUGH FASTER NEGATIVE TILT BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION RUNNING SLOWER...KEEPING
TROUGH AMPLIFIED AND STATIONARY OVER THE WEST COAST BEFORE
SHEARING IT RAPIDLY EASTWARD AS THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK GETS
UNDERWAY. ECMWF SEEMS MORE DELIBERATE IN PATTERN EVOLUTION AND
MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE BIG DIG FOLLOWED BY ZIPPY SHEAR OF THE
GFS...THUS WILL LEAN THE EUROPEAN WAY FOR THE OUT PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST PACKAGE.

FOR TODAY...COLD FRONT LOCKED UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
PENETRATE INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND
SET UP ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. AWAY FROM THE NORTH...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE MORE
SCATTERED AND SOMEWHAT LESS INTENSE...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS POSSIBLE. JUST ABOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON SATURATED
GROUND WILL POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT...AND HAVE RETURNED FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO THE MASTHEAD THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND SOMEWHAT REDUCED CLOUD COVER MAY HELP MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SQUEAK TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF MID SEPTEMBER
NORMALS. SOME LOCAL BREEZES BACKING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS BY LATE TODAY.

FOR MONDAY...NEW MEXICO REMAINING SQUARE IN THE SADDLE IN THE
DANCE OF THE DUAL CENTROIDS...ONE OVER THE TROPICAL EAST
PACIFIC...AND THE OTHER OVER LOUISIANA. PATTERN WILL SET UP
ANOTHER DAY OF BROAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE...WITH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITIES STARTING TO EASE DOWN OVER THOSE OBSERVED OVER THE
WEEKEND. EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL BE MOST FAVORED FOR THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN
RECYCLE MODE...ANY WELL DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. COOLER AIR WILL SAG SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
RUNNING NEAR NORMAL OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW.

FOR TUESDAY...RIDGE SADDLE POINT UNMOVED AND REMAINING OVER
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA AS SURFACE DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE STATE...AND FASTER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT GRAZES THE NORTHERN BORDER OF NEW MEXICO EN ROUTE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODEST DOWN TICK IN SHOWER INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE...BUT CONVECTIVE RECYCLING WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FOR YET ANOTHER DAY. HEAVIER SHOWERS MOST FAVORED FOR THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AS PRECIPITATION
TRENDS HEAD DOWNWARD. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURE REGIME.

FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE NUDGED SOUTHWARD AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ROUNDING
LARGE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES TO
SOUTHERN UTAH SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO. SHOWER COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WILL TAKE ANOTHER DOWN TICK WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
HEAVIER SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH COUNTRY.
A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER AND SOME SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP NUDGE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES UP TO MID SEPTEMBER NORMALS. SOME LOCAL
SOUTHWEST BREEZES DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...TROUGH SLIDING EASTWARD WILL
GRAZE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND PUSH COOLER AIR
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY...AND THIS FEATURE WILL COLLAPSE
EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH LURKING OFF THE
WEST COAST. DOWN DAY FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY WILL PICK UP MODESTLY
OVER THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND THEN EXPAND IN COVERAGE STATEWIDE WITH
HIGH COUNTRY FAVORED ON SATURDAY. WITH MODEL UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE
KEPT THESE OUT PERIOD PRECIPITATION FORECASTS AT THE SLIGHT CHANCE
LEVEL PENDING BETTER AGREEMENT.

SHY

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

MODELS...AGREEING REASONABLY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
TROUGH ROLLING THROUGH CENTRAL ROCKIES GRAZING NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO...AND IMPARTING SOME SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE STATE
SUPPORTING CURRENT ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIDGE WILL REBUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S...BUT A WEAK SPOT IN THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO KEEPING THE STATE IN AN ACTIVE SHOWERY
PATTERN FOR THE TIME BEING. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF
THE NORTH PACIFIC TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY NEXT WEEKEND MAY BRING
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE TO THE PATTERN...BUT MODELS HAVING
TROUBLE AGREEING ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.

FOR TODAY...WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE CONTINUING
FOR ANOTHER DAY...WITH THREATS CONTINUING TO BURN SCARS STATEWIDE.
COLD FRONT INVADING NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL BACK WINDS AROUND TO
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...PROVIDING SOME UP SLOPE FLOW TO HELP
REFOCUS HEAVIER SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR TODAY. LOTS
OF MOISTURE ON HAND WILL PUT THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE IN RECYCLE
MODE..WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW MID
SEPTEMBER NORMALS WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 40S AND 50S PCT
IN MOST SPOTS. VENTILATION REMAINS MARGINAL OR WORSE OVER MOST OF
THE STATE...SOME IMPROVEMENTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS CLOSER TO
THE TEXAS BORDER.

FOR MONDAY...FIRST SIGNS OF A DOWN TICK IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...BUT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD AT SOMEWHAT
REDUCED INTENSITIES. BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL MAINLY IN
THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL WINDS PUSH UP SLOPE ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. LITTLE CHANGE TO
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES...A LITTLE COOLER IN THE EAST. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES STILL MOSTLY 40S AND 50S PCT. CONTINUED VERY MARGINAL
VENTILATION CONDITIONS.

FOR TUESDAY...DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW
MEXICO...WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BUILDING IN OVER THE
STATE. PATTERN ADDS UP TO ANOTHER MODEST DOWN TICK IN SHOWER
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WITH BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINS OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH COUNTRY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL
FLIRTING WITH NORMAL AND COMING IN A FEW DEGREES BELOW IN MOST
SPOTS. SOME GRADUALLY DRYING WILL DROP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE
30S AND 40S PCT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL KICK UP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...AS SURFACE
TROUGH FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA TO THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE DEEPENS.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWER DOWN TICK CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME COVERAGE INCREASES IN THE EAST ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY...WITH A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES DROPPING BACK
INTO THE 30S PCT IN MOST SPOTS BY FRIDAY. A LITTLE BETTER
VENTILATION PICTURE WITH FEWER POOR AND MORE FAIR SPOTS SHOWING
UP...BUT MOST OF THE STATE WELL SHORT OF GOOD VENTILATION.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ503-504-506>533.

&&

40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
613 AM MDT SUN SEP 15 2013

NMZ501>540-161200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
613 AM MDT SUN SEP 15 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH THE MAIN EMPHASIS ON AREAS EAST FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TO THE HIGHLANDS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AS WELL
AS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. ANY HEAVY RAINS THAT DEVELOP WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD DIMINISH MORE QUICKLY TONIGHT
COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. HOWEVER A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT MAY
KEEP SOME HEAVIER RAIN GOING ALL NIGHT THERE. UPWARDS OF ONE TO
TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND...WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...LOCALIZED
FLOODING MAY AGAIN OCCUR. AREAS THE HARDEST HIT WITH EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS...PLUS LOCALITIES WITHIN AND BELOW
RECENT BURN SCARS...AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN GENERAL...WILL
BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE. THE COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD
BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN RECENT DAYS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY RAIN AREAS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EAST FROM
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MAINLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY FLOODING
THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

43