Flash Flood Warning 100, NWS Albuquerque, NM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
608 PM MDT SAT SEP 14 2013

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NM IS BEGINNING TO SEE SOME SUBTLE
DRYING...BUT STORMS ARE STILL ACTIVE OVER THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN
AREAS OF THE STATE EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MORE STORMS FILLING IN OVER THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN CENTRAL PARTS OF NM. SOME OCCASIONAL LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS MAY LINGER BEHIND PASSING SHOWERS AND OVER TERRAIN
RECENTLY SOAKED BY HEFTY RAINFALL FROM THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO BE COMMON AND PERIODIC AS WELL. THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL HAVE FAIRLY LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TONIGHT...BUT ON SUNDAY STORMS WILL HAVE MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR
INITIATION FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND THE ASSISTANCE OF A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHEAST NM. THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN AREAS
WILL ALSO HAVE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS SUNDAY.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...258 PM MDT SAT SEP 14 2013...
ANOTHER ACTIVE PM WITH PLENTY OF RAIN...SOME OF IT HEAVY. UPPER
WAVE MOVING INTO NE NM WITH A DRY SLOT BEHIND IT. SUNSHINE HAS
HEATED UP THE W AND RESULTED IN A GOOD CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH SOME HEAVY RAINERS. OTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
NE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. EXPECT CONVECTION TO GO
WELL INTO THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH MORE AFTER MIDNIGHT
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

HEIGHT RISES ON SUN SHOULD CAP STORMS A BIT MORE AND OVERALL TREND
WILL BE FOR A LITTLE LESS STORM COVERAGE. EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE
NE WHERE A COLD FRONT WILL BE NEARING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE S
SUN NIGHT AND KEEP THE AREA FAIRLY ACTIVE.

A LIGHT W FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK..LEADING TO A GENERAL
DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. MON WILL STILL BE ACTIVE THEN WE
SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NOTICEABLE DECREASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK COULD ALLOW
FOR A BRIEF UPTICK IN ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE E ON FRI AND SAT.

CHJ

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...THUS THE MONSOON PLUME HAS BEEN CUT-OFF JUST A BIT.
THEREFORE...WE ARE TRANSITIONING FROM MORE TROPICAL-LIKE
RAINFALL...TO MORE TYPICAL CONVECTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING. DRIEST AREA TODAY
SHOULD BE THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS. EXCELLENT HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES ON TAP AGAIN TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY...NM WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION INTO A MORE TYPICAL
MONSOON REGIME WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECTING LESS STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION AND MORE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST NM WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS
MECHANISM FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. DAYTIME HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN PRETTY HIGH...THOUGH
GENERALLY 4 TO 8 PERCENT BELOW TODAYS READINGS.

THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH IT WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY GRADUAL UNTIL WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF
AFTN/EVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MON/TUE. BY WEDNESDAY...WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME STRONGER...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO THE WEST TO
FILTER INTO NM. THUS...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO
DWINDLE CONSIDERABLY ON WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH MAY STILL SEE A FEW STORMS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

VENTILATION WILL LOWER A BIT ON SUNDAY...AND REMAIN IN THE POOR TO
FAIR CATEGORY ON MONDAY...BUT SHOULD START TO IMPROVE ON TUESDAY.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ503-504-506>533.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
611 AM MDT SAT SEP 14 2013

NMZ501>540-151200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
611 AM MDT SAT SEP 14 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH THE MAIN EMPHASIS ON AREAS BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
THE HIGHLANDS JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL AND
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. UPWARDS OF ONE TO TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF
RAIN MAY FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND EVEN
SOME MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING MAY AGAIN OCCUR. AREAS THE HARDEST HIT
WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS...PLUS LOCALITIES
WITHIN AND BELOW RECENT BURN SCARS...AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN SLOPES IN
GENERAL...WILL BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE. THE COVERAGE OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL HOWEVER SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN RECENT DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
BUT SHOW A TREND TOWARD LESS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THIS
PERIOD. SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MAY STILL DEVELOP FROM TIME TO
TIME SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT MOSTLY FROM JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WEST TO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHILE SOME
HEAVY RUNOFF AND EVEN VERY LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION THROUGH THIS PERIOD...THE FLOODING RISK WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN RECENT DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND ANY FLOODING
THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637.

43

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
128 PM MDT SAT SEP 14 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     FLASH FLOOD      16 SSW BEAVERHEAD       33.22N 108.25W
09/14/2013                   CATRON             NM   OTHER FEDERAL

            5 TO 8 FEET OF WATER RISE IN THE MIDDLE FORK OF THE
            GILA RIVER NEAR THE GILA CLIFF DWELLING VISITOR CENTER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER ABQ1301373

05

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