Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
442 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012

.UPDATE...NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED FOR CENTRAL SD
UNTIL 06Z.

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM A LOW
CROSSING SASKATCHEWAN. THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BEHIND THE FRONT...SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 124 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012/

DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH SHORTWAVE TROF CROSSING SOUTHERN
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY TO  MOSTLY SUNNY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME STORMS STARTING TO FIRE OFF OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE IN WYOMING. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND INVERTED TROF
STRETCHING NORTH INTO EASTERN MONTANA. WINDS HAVE ALREADY SWITCHED
TO THE NORTHWEST IN GILLETTE WYOMING. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES...WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT
OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 25 MPH.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE TROF NUDGES INTO WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND
SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE PROBABLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH ACTIVITY
WINDING DOWN ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING EARLY IN THE EVENING. SEVERE
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS. SURFACE TROF/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY MORNING...BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

SATURDAY...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND MILD DAY. HIGHS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN FRIDAY...BUT STILL IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.

SUNDAY...WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AGAIN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE DAKOTAS. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL AGAIN BE
ADVECTED INTO THE AREA...AND HIGHS SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
80S TO MID 90S. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
STAY TO THE NORTH. NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA MAY GET CLIPPED WITH A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST
OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AT THIS POINT.

AVIATION...18Z TAF UPDATE
STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LATER THIS
EVENING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW CROSSING SASKATCHEWAN
WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
BREEZY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WFO UNR
LONG TERM....WFO UNR
AVIATION...WFO UNR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1245 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-161300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
1245 PM MDT (145 PM CDT) FRI JUN 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

ALSO...STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE VERY SLOW
MOVING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER VARIOUS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
438 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012

SDZ026-028-152330-
CENTRAL BLACK HILLS SD-RAPID CITY SD-
438 PM MDT FRI JUN 15 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PENNINGTON COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM MDT...

AT 433 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DEERFIELD RESERVOIR...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST
OF HILL CITY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  MYSTIC...
  SILVER CITY...
  PACTOLA RESERVOIR...
  SHERIDAN LAKE...
  JOHNSON SIDING...
  HISEGA...
  ROCKERVILLE...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

IN ADDITION...THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4414 10328 4392 10326 4398 10380 4408 10380
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 272DEG 26KT 4401 10367

SCHILD

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