Alert archive / South Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397

June 15, 20124 counties in Nebraska; 21 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jun 15, 2012, 5:14 PM CDT for 4 counties in Nebraska; 21 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 15, 2012, 5:14 PM CDT (22:14 UTC)
Expired
Jun 15, 2012, 11:21 PM CDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 25 counties

Brown County, NE, Cherry County, NE, Keya Paha County, NE, Sheridan County, NE, Bennett County, SD, Buffalo County, SD, Corson County, SD, Dewey County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, Faulk County, SD, Haakon County, SD, Hand County, SD, Hughes County, SD, Hyde County, SD, Jackson County, SD, Jones County, SD, Lyman County, SD, Mellette County, SD, Potter County, SD, Stanley County, SD, Sully County, SD, Todd County, SD, Tripp County, SD, Walworth County, SD, Ziebach County, SD

The radar

The Rapid City radar (KUDX), 147 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
20%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
5%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
40%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

3 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 15, 5:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNRHaakon, Meade, Pennington, Ziebach57 min
Jun 15, 6:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNRHaakon40 min
Jun 15, 7:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningUNRZiebach23 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Rapid City, SD (KUNR), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 152 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Rapid City, SD at 12:00Z on 2012-06-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Rapid City, SD at 12:00Z on 2012-06-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 26 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1967 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
26 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
277 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

154 
WWUS20 KWNS 152216
SEL7
SPC WW 152216
NEZ000-SDZ000-160600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 397
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
515 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       NORTHERN NEBRASKA
       CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 515 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
VALENTINE NEBRASKA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 395...WW 396...

DISCUSSION...STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN LEE-SIDE/THERMAL LOW AND
DEVELOPING WARN FRONT ACROSS SD SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ALONG
THE NEB/SD BORDER AND ALSO INTO AREAS OF CENTRAL SD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. REGION LIES WITHIN/BENEATH MID LEVEL JET STREAK THAT
IS PROVIDING DEEP SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION AND
PERSISTENCE. IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL WITH INITIAL CELLULAR
DEVELOPMENT...STORM MERGERS AND SOME UPSCALE GROWTH WITHIN THE
DEEP-LAYER WLY FLOW REGIME...AND INCREASE IN NOCTURNAL LLJ...COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO MCS DEVELOPMENT WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR MORE
NUMEROUS SEVERE OR NEAR SEVERE WIND EVENTS WITH TIME.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27015.


...CARBIN

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 15, 1:54 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBanner, Box Butte, Cheyenne, Dawes, Deuel, Kimball and 3 more96 min
Jun 15, 2:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBanner, Box Butte, Cheyenne, Dawes, Kimball, Morrill and 2 more7 hr
Jun 15, 4:59 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCherry, Sheridan91 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in South Dakota, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Nebraska, 2012Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.