Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
544 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS UPDATE
SCT TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVER NERN WY INTO WRN AND CNTRL SD THIS
EVE...WITH IFR VIS IN HEAVIER PRECIP. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS. HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPO MENTIONS FOR CURRENT BEST GUESS OF TS TIMING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHERLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 155 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW MOVING EWD ACRS SRN
ALTA...WITH LEADING EDGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
MONSOONAL FLOW LIFTING NEWD INTO WRN/CNTRL WY. AT THE SURFACE...AN
ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS MOVING EWD THROUGH ERN MT/ERN WY. ALSO...A
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER SCNTRL SD ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG THE CDFNT OVER ERN
MT/ERN WY AS WELL AS THE BLKHLS.

THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE
CWFA AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT...AIDED
BY THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT. MLCAPE AROUND 1500J/KG AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT ALONG WITH 30-40KT 0-6KM SHEAR (ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE) WILL SUPPORT SVR STORMS. HEAVY RAINS ALSO A
THREAT GIVEN SLOW INDIVIDUAL STORM MOVEMENT.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA ON
WITH DECENT CAA. 850MB WINDS WILL SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND RESIDUAL MONSOON MOISTURE...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.

THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
BREEZY NW WINDS KEEPING TEMPS AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE PLEASANT GIVEN THE HEAT OF LATE.

EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS RE-AMPLIFIES
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...JC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
453 AM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-251300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
453 AM MDT (553 AM CDT) TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WELL AS
THE SUNDANCE AND NEWCASTLE AREAS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
903 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     TSTM WND GST     18 S DOWNTOWN NEWCASTLE 43.60N 104.15W
07/24/2012  M62 MPH          WESTON             WY   MESONET

            RAWS SITE

&&

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
905 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     TSTM WND GST     13 NNE WRIGHT           43.93N 105.45W
07/24/2012  M58 MPH          CAMPBELL           WY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

JC

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