Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
544 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS UPDATE
SCT TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVER NERN WY INTO WRN AND CNTRL SD THIS
EVE...WITH IFR VIS IN HEAVIER PRECIP. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS. HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPO MENTIONS FOR CURRENT BEST GUESS OF TS TIMING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHERLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 155 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW MOVING EWD ACRS SRN
ALTA...WITH LEADING EDGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
MONSOONAL FLOW LIFTING NEWD INTO WRN/CNTRL WY. AT THE SURFACE...AN
ASSOCIATED CDFNT IS MOVING EWD THROUGH ERN MT/ERN WY. ALSO...A
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER SCNTRL SD ALONG AN OLD STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG THE CDFNT OVER ERN
MT/ERN WY AS WELL AS THE BLKHLS.

THIS AFTN/TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE
CWFA AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT...AIDED
BY THE SHORT WAVE ALOFT. MLCAPE AROUND 1500J/KG AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT ALONG WITH 30-40KT 0-6KM SHEAR (ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE) WILL SUPPORT SVR STORMS. HEAVY RAINS ALSO A
THREAT GIVEN SLOW INDIVIDUAL STORM MOVEMENT.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA ON
WITH DECENT CAA. 850MB WINDS WILL SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND RESIDUAL MONSOON MOISTURE...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH SVR THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL.

THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
BREEZY NW WINDS KEEPING TEMPS AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE PLEASANT GIVEN THE HEAT OF LATE.

EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS RE-AMPLIFIES
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...JC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
453 AM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-251300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
453 AM MDT (553 AM CDT) TUE JUL 24 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST THIS EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WELL AS
THE SUNDANCE AND NEWCASTLE AREAS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
423 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

SDZ072-073-242300-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS SD-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS SD-
423 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MEADE COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM
MDT...

AT 417 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TILFORD...OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN
STURGIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
AREAS NORTHEAST OF TILFORD

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN SOUTH DAKOTA MILE MARKERS 34 AND
44...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4455 10313 4433 10296 4424 10342 4437 10350
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 242DEG 9KT 4433 10333

POJORLIE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
440 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     TSTM WND GST     ALADDIN                 44.63N 104.18W
07/24/2012  E60 MPH          CROOK              WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

POJORLIE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
543 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

SDZ012-072-073-250030-
BUTTE SD-SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS SD-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS SD-
543 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MEADE AND SOUTHEASTERN
BUTTE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM MDT...

AT 541 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NISLAND...OR 15 MILES NORTH OF DOWNTOWN
STURGIS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  VALE...
  NEWELL...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4480 10298 4452 10296 4450 10356 4472 10358
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 263DEG 20KT 4463 10348

CALDERON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
710 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

SDZ032-043-250200-
HAAKON SD-JACKSON SD-
710 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HAAKON AND NORTHERN
JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM MDT...

AT 709 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF PHILIP...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  PHILIP...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4416 10161 4397 10131 4383 10181 4390 10189
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 230DEG 22KT 4394 10172

SCHILD