Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
139 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE PUSHING
INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
RADAR IMAGERY HAS THUNDERSTORMS GOING UP OVER THE BLACK HILLS WITH
SOME SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

ANOTHER ACTIVE NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE. MORNING SOUNDING HAD 1.37 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER WHICH IS +2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF AVERAGE. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. DON/T ANTICIPATING NEEDING ANY KIND OF
FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES...SINCE NUMEROUS CREEKS AND PONDS ARE VERY
LOW...WATER WILL HAVE A PLACE TO GO. LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS ARE
RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER...SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER BESIDES HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. IN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...STORMS
SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE 700 MB HEIGHT THETA-E RIDGE WHICH IS WHERE
THE CONVECTION IS NOW FIRING.

EXPECT NEARLY ALL ACTIVITY TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY WED MORNING.
HOWEVER STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
THE BLACK HILLS WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING MOISTURE. NOT
SURE HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT AT
THIS TIME...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MAY KEEP SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY REBUILDS...THUS EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN THE
TEMPERATURES. TRIPLE DIGITS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER THE CWA.

EXTENDED... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. HOT CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD PLAINS. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND ALLOWS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN
THE 90S WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF UPDATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS...CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
123 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-181300-
HARDING-PERKINS-BUTTE-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-ZIEBACH-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-RAPID CITY-
SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-
CUSTER CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-HAAKON-FALL RIVER-SHANNON-
JACKSON-BENNETT-MELLETTE-TODD-TRIPP-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WESTERN CROOK-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-WESTON-
NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
123 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012 /223 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ALSO WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE...SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
352 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     HAIL             3 N SHERIDAN LAKE       44.02N 103.47W
07/17/2012  E0.75 INCH       PENNINGTON         SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KPOJORLI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
356 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 SE DOWNTOWN GILLETTE  44.20N 105.37W
07/17/2012  M63 MPH          CAMPBELL           WY   PUBLIC

&&

CALDERON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
403 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NNW ROZET             44.35N 105.24W
07/17/2012  E60 MPH          CAMPBELL           WY   PUBLIC

            VERY HEAVY RAIN

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
406 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND GST     CARLILE                 44.48N 104.80W
07/17/2012  E60 MPH          CROOK              WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VERY HEAVY RAINFALL

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
410 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             5 NNW OSAGE             44.05N 104.47W
07/17/2012  M1.00 INCH       WESTON             WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL TOTAL OF 0.76 INCH

&&

SMITH

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