Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
139 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

.DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE PUSHING
INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA.
RADAR IMAGERY HAS THUNDERSTORMS GOING UP OVER THE BLACK HILLS WITH
SOME SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

ANOTHER ACTIVE NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALREADY IN
PLACE. MORNING SOUNDING HAD 1.37 INCHES OF PRECIP WATER WHICH IS +2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF AVERAGE. EXPECT SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. DON/T ANTICIPATING NEEDING ANY KIND OF
FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES...SINCE NUMEROUS CREEKS AND PONDS ARE VERY
LOW...WATER WILL HAVE A PLACE TO GO. LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS ARE
RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER...SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER BESIDES HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. IN SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...STORMS
SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE 700 MB HEIGHT THETA-E RIDGE WHICH IS WHERE
THE CONVECTION IS NOW FIRING.

EXPECT NEARLY ALL ACTIVITY TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY WED MORNING.
HOWEVER STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
THE BLACK HILLS WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING MOISTURE. NOT
SURE HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SO HAVE LEFT POPS OUT AT
THIS TIME...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW MAY KEEP SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY REBUILDS...THUS EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN THE
TEMPERATURES. TRIPLE DIGITS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER THE CWA.

EXTENDED... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. HOT CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD PLAINS. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND ALLOWS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE
WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN
THE 90S WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF UPDATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS...CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MLS
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
123 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-181300-
HARDING-PERKINS-BUTTE-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-ZIEBACH-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-RAPID CITY-
SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-
CUSTER CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-HAAKON-FALL RIVER-SHANNON-
JACKSON-BENNETT-MELLETTE-TODD-TRIPP-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WESTERN CROOK-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-WESTON-
NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
123 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012 /223 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ALSO WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE...SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1246 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

WYZ057-171930-
WYOMING BLACK HILLS WY-
1246 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CROOK COUNTY UNTIL 130 PM
MDT...

AT 1242 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES EAST OF WARREN PEAK...OR 9 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SUNDANCE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN CROOK COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN WYOMING MILE MARKERS 191 AND
203...

&&

LAT...LON 4458 10409 4440 10427 4449 10441 4465 10427
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 316DEG 7KT 4451 10427

BARBER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1255 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

SDZ024-025-072-171945-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS SD-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS SD-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT
HILLS SD-
1255 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LAWRENCE AND EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN MEADE COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM MDT...

AT 1254 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BROWNSVILLE...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF
DEADWOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BROWNSVILLE...
  GALENA...

&&

LAT...LON 4445 10364 4433 10345 4415 10376 4424 10387
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 223DEG 17KT 4425 10372

BARBER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
117 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

SDZ025-WYZ057-172000-
NORTHERN FOOT HILLS SD-WYOMING BLACK HILLS WY-
117 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CROOK AND NORTHWESTERN
LAWRENCE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM MDT...

AT 115 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BEULAH...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SUNDANCE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  BEULAH...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN SOUTH DAKOTA MILE MARKERS 1 AND
3...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN WYOMING MILE MARKERS 195 AND
207...

&&

LAT...LON 4463 10417 4460 10408 4457 10406 4458 10404
      4457 10399 4447 10403 4446 10405 4443 10405
      4439 10406 4445 10427
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 287DEG 10KT 4450 10416

BARBER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
201 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

WYZ056>058-172045-
WESTERN CROOK WY-WESTON WY-WYOMING BLACK HILLS WY-
201 PM MDT TUE JUL 17 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CROOK AND NORTHERN
WESTON COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM MDT...

AT 157 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR UPTON...OR 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUNDANCE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME NORTHERN WESTON AND SOUTHERN CROOK
COUNTIES.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN WYOMING MILE MARKERS 169 AND
178...

&&

LAT...LON 4437 10462 4427 10433 4402 10462 4411 10480
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 208DEG 23KT 4413 10465

BARBER