Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
234 PM MDT THU JUL 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA. LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
WYOMING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOW IN WYOMING
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LATEST WV SAT IMAGE SHOWS A PLUME OF
ABUNDANT MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.

LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WYOMING LOW WEAKENS. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
BY 12Z FRIDAY. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVER WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH THE FRONT NEARING THE ND/SD BORDER BY 12Z
FRIDAY. LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE
THE FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...WITH SOME SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...INITIAL SYSTEM MOVES NORTH WITH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE WEST. SURFACE HIGH SLIPS INTO THE
CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS DRIER IN THE EAST THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THEREFORE HAVE PUSHED THE POPS BACK TO THE
WEST...MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER...BUT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

EXTENDED...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN STILL IN PLACE. FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AREA...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE CWA. A WEAK SHORT
WAVE MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF UPDATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...STRONG STORMS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN
CREATING MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS. BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING...THE BLACK HILLS
AREA...AND NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WFO UNR
LONG TERM....WFO UNR
AVIATION...WFO UNR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
406 AM MDT THU JUL 5 2012

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-061300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
406 AM MDT (506 AM CDT) THU JUL 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RATHER WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MAINLY
NEAR AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>