Severe Thunderstorm Watch 472

Issued

Jul 5, 2012, 4:10 PM MDT (22:10 UTC)

Expired

Jul 6, 2012, 12:00 AM MDT

In force

8 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

2 in

Strongest gust expected

60 kt

The Rapid City radar (KUDX), 155 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

20%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

10%

Ten or more severe wind reports

30%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

10%

Ten or more severe hail reports

60%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

30%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

95%

• Mesoscale Discussion 1409Jul 5, 2:40 PM MDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1414Jul 5, 5:37 PM MDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1415Jul 5, 8:52 PM MDT

622 
WWUS20 KWNS 052217
SEL2
SPC WW 052217
MTZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-060600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
410 PM MDT THU JUL 5 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

       SOUTHEAST MONTANA
       NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
       WESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
       EASTERN WYOMING

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 410 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
TORRINGTON WYOMING TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF BUFFALO SOUTH
DAKOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 469...WW 470...WW 471...

DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY
STRENGTH THROUGH LATE TNGT IN ZONE OF MOISTENING...SSELY LOW LVL
FLOW AND INCREASING UPR LVL DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM UPR IMPULSE
MOVING NNE INTO THE NRN RCKYS.  OTHERS STORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FORMING FARTHER E NEAR WARM FRONT OVER NRN NEB/WRN SD...AND OVER THE
BLACK HILLS.  WHILE THE INITIAL SVR THREATS SHOULD BE SVR HAIL/DMGG
WIND...BACKED AND INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LVL FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN
INCREASING TORNADO RISK THIS EVE...MAINLY NEAR WARM FRONT AND THE
BLACK HILLS.  PARTS OF NE WY/WRN SD AND PERHAPS SE MT MAY REQUIRE
UPGRADE TO TORNADO TOWARD THAT TIME.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 21030.


...CORFIDI

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in South Dakota, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Wyoming, 2012Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Nebraska, 2012Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2012

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.