Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
524 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS
ISOLD/SCT TSRA WILL PUSH ACROSS NERN WY AND FAR WRN SD THROUGH
THIS EVE...THEN DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT AS THEY MOVE ONTO THE SD
PLAINS. LCL IFR VIS/CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS ALONG WITH VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE SD
PLAINS...AS A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. THE WIND SHEAR WILL
SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS WITH SHORT WAVE RIDING THE SW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
CNTRL ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...LOW CENTER IS DEEPENING NEAR THE MT/WY
BORDER. HOT WEATHER WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THIS
WEEK.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO WRN
PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS...WITH SFC LOW TRACKING EWD ACROSS FAR
NWRN SD. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR WRN HALF OF
ZONES. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE/COLD FRONT WILL WORK
WITH THE GREATER INSTABILITY/MOISTURE ACROSS WRN SD TO PRODUCE A
FEW STORMS. SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
AND COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SVR STORM OR TWO...MAINLY FROM
THE BLKHLS INTO NWRN SD. NW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS NERN
WY AND NWRN SD TOWARDS MRNG BEHIND THE FRONT.

MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION
BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE/COLD FRONT. BEST FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE ACROSS SCNTRL SD ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH A STORM OR
TWO ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE BLKHLS BY LATE AFTN AS SURFACE WINDS
BECOME NE. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS SCNTRL SD WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL PUSH INTO THE
100 TO 105 RANGE...SO A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THAT AREA.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA BY LATE AFTN AND PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR TSTMS. THE
HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE THE WORST IN SCNTRL SD WHERE A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE.

EXTENDED...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE
LONG TERM. PERIODIC WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE ACROSS THE RIDGE
BRINGING NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO VARYING PARTS OF
THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND AS MODELS ARE STARTING TO SUGGEST A MONSOONAL TYPE PATTERN
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
THRU MID-WEEK WITH A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUING ACROSS SCNTRL SD.
TEMPS WILL THEN COOL SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...AND WILL PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING AND LITTLE
RAINFALL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MDT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MELLETTE-
     TODD-TRIPP.

WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR LOWER
     ELEVATIONS OF CROOK AND WESTON COUNTIES-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-
     SOUTHERN CAMPBELL.

&&

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...JOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
245 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-021300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
245 PM MDT (345 PM CDT) SUN JUL 1 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...GUSTY WINDS...AND DRY LIGHTNING FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING...

...HEAT ADVISORY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES...VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...AND
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO WILL BE FOUND OVER THE REST
OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS IS OVER NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE A NEAR DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY FOR VARIOUS PARTS OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LITTLE RELIEF IS EXPECTED
AT NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 70S.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

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