Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1205 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

TSRA POTENTIAL AT THE NE OK AND NW AR TERMINALS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT THE BIGGEST CONCERN. SOME SIGNS THAT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THESE AREAS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FYV/XNA.
WILL CARRY TEMPOS AT FYV/XNA WITH VCTS AT BVO/TUL/RVS. ALSO SOME
MORE ISOLD/SCT AFTN DEVELOPMENT /MUCH LIKE THE LAST COUPLE OF
AFTNS/ COULD AFFECT ALL SITES...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AT
MLC/FSM/XNA/FYV. WITH ANY TSRA...DOWNBURST POTENTIAL EXISTS...WITH
MORE ORGANIZED WIND POTENTIAL THIS EVENING WITH STORMS NEAR THE
KS/MO BORDERS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES EXCEPT IN
TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2012/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
RAISED POPS IN ALL AREAS THIS MORNING TO CHANCE CATEGORY TO MATCH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SEVERE THREATS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS THE MAIN CONCERN...WITH
LARGISH HAIL A SECONDARY CONCERN. STILL THINK THAT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN YESTERDAY IN
MOST AREAS...DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY IN SOME LOCATIONS.
ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...HOWEVER...WILL YIELD A QUICK WARMUP SO
SUBSEQUENT TEMPERATURE UPDATES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2012/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT
TOO SMALL TO CARRY IN TAFS. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE DEVELOPING
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2012/

DISCUSSION...
WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW MORE DEGREES
ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF FRONT.  PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS BELOW
HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT WED AUG 8 2012/

DISCUSSION...
A SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...TRYING
TO PIN DOWN PRECIPITATION TIMING/COVERAGE AND THE OVERALL IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL VORT/SPEED MAX WILL DIVE SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING. DEPENDING
ON HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL POSE A
SEVERE THREAT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL WITH APPROACHING
TROUGH. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH SOME TYPE OF MCS
FEATURE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH ON ABOVE SCENARIO...BUT WITH
THE WETTER NAM/LOCAL MODEL WENT WITH MODESTLY HIGHER POPS THAN
THE MAV GUIDANCE.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...PUSHING SOUTH TO THE RED RIVER BY EARLY EVENING. HOT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE
OK/W CENTRAL ARKANSAS. ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A MUCH NEEDED
BREAK FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL
STILL BE WARM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH A VERY DRY AIR-MASS IN
PLACE/GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL
BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT DO NOT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

WEAKER UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING CLOSER TO THE
SEASONAL NORMS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL AT LEAST BRING A LIMITED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TRENDED TOWARD
THE WARMER ECMWF FOR HIGHS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1250 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1250 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
LIKELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL BE THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS...ALTHOUGH SOME LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL EXISTS AS WELL.

IN ADDITION TO THE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN A THREAT
FOR MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUED TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WILL LEAD TO HEAT
INDICES NEAR 105 FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND PART OF WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE HOT WEATHER WILL ALSO FUEL A LIMITED FIRE
DANGER...ALTHOUGH OVERALL...LIGHTER WINDS WILL LEAD TO A
RELATIVELY LOW THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
WILL BE IF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS IMPACT AN ONGOING FIRE...IN WHICH
CASE...FIRE SPREAD COULD BECOME QUICK AND ERRATIC.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...
           DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING DRY
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN. THE DRIER CONDITIONS AND INCREASED WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED
THREAT OF RAPID FIRE SPREAD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...THEN STALL OUT.
THAT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
246 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0229 PM     FLASH FLOOD      POTEAU                  35.05N 94.62W
08/08/2012                   LE FLORE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD CLOSURES UNDERWAY IN POTEAU.

&&

JBM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
248 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SHADY POINT             35.13N 94.66W
08/08/2012                   LE FLORE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS DOWN

&&

JBM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
255 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

ARZ019-029-OKZ072-082045-
CRAWFORD AR-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-
255 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN CRAWFORD

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN SEQUOYAH

AT 255 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF CEDARVILLE TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MULDROW...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...COTTONWOOD...MULDROW...ROLAND...
SHORT...MOFFETT...UNIONTOWN...CONCORD...FORT SMITH...VAN BUREN...
ALMA...CEDARVILLE...KIBLER...SHIBLEY...FURRY...DYER...FIGURE FIVE...
RUDY AND DORA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARBLE SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN
CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3536 9443 3537 9443 3538 9447 3534 9449
      3533 9452 3554 9479 3566 9426 3548 9405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 315DEG 7KT 3561 9427 3550 9469

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
325 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     TSTM WND GST     MUSKOGEE                35.75N 95.37W
08/08/2012  M70 MPH          MUSKOGEE           OK   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            70 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT DAVIS FIELD.

&&

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
329 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

ARZ029-OKZ070-072-074-076-082115-
HASKELL OK-LE FLORE OK-MUSKOGEE OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-
329 PM CDT WED AUG 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     WESTERN SEBASTIAN

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     HASKELL AND NORTHERN LE FLORE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE AND SOUTHWESTERN SEQUOYAH

AT 328 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF TAMAHA TO 3 MILES SOUTH OF
CAMERON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS
INCLUDE...MCCURTAIN...STIGLER...WHITEFIELD...KEOTA...KANIMA...TAMAHA.
..GORE...POTEAU...HOWE...WISTER...SHADY
POINT...CAMERON...MILTON...PANAMA...BOKOSHE...ROCK
ISLAND...SPIRO...SCULLYVILLE...COWLINGTON...BRIARTOWN...WEBBERS
FALLS AND JENSON.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARBLE SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

LAT...LON 3488 9462 3526 9534 3556 9510 3517 9439
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 037DEG 10KT 3539 9510 3509 9456