Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
613 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND SUNSET
AND ARE NOT LIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SHOWER
AND STORM AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012/

DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS SE OK AND WC AR HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED BY AFTERNOON SURFACE HEATING AND SUFFICIENT MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
OFFER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. REGARDING THE ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY...WILL ALLOW NPW TO
EXPIRE AT 02Z. WILL HOLD OF AN ANY ADDITIONAL ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
WITH UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE DURATION/AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS
AND CONVECTION TOMORROW.

STRONG UPPER SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND
THEN SLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY REGION IN THE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN PUSHING DRIER
AND COOLER SURFACE AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR
FRIDAY...AND WILL RESULT IN A VERY COOL DAY BY AUGUST STANDARDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEING TO REBOUND FOR SATURDAY AND BEYOND. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK...BUT INCONSISTENTLY PLACED QPF
SIGNALS INDICATED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-
     OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM TUESDAY FOR ARZ029.

&&

AVIATION...05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. MANY OF THESE STORMS ARE BRIEFLY BECOMING
STRONG TO SEVERE. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS... SLOWLY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO TRIPLE DIGITS AREAWIDE THIS
AFTERNOON... CONTINUING THE DANGEROUS HEAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AS SUCH... THE FIRE DANGER ALSO CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
OVER THE THE NEXT FEW DAYS... AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO NEAR
TRIPLE DIGITS EACH AFTERNOON.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
MODERATELY UNSTABLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PERSISTS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
634 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

OKZ072-080000-
SEQUOYAH OK-
634 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN SEQUOYAH

AT 635 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF
VIAN...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...VIAN.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3544 9502 3547 9506 3546 9507 3546 9508
      3553 9513 3557 9495 3552 9490
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 056DEG 7KT 3553 9497

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