Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1152 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE OK IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
AN ATTEMPT WAS MADE TO TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY TIME WINDOW
FOR THE VARIOUS TERMINALS BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA.
STORMS SHOULD EXIT ALL SITES BY 15Z MONDAY MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED
AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE KFSM AND KMLC
TERMINALS ON MONDAY...ENDING BY AROUND 00Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF STORM ACTIVITY.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND ATTENDANT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND
WITH THE FINER DETAILS OF HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT TWO AREAS OF INTEREST AT THE MOMENT ARE
CONVECTION BLOSSOMING OVER WEST CENTRAL OK AND BAND OF STORMS
ACROSS SE KANSAS. SHORT RANGE HI RES MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH THE WESTERN OK STORMS GROWING INTO SOUTHEAST MOVING MCS THAT
GENERALLY REMAINS WEST OF OUR AREA...WHILE DEVELOPING LARGE
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER NE OKLAHOMA FROM 03-06Z. SE KANSAS
STORMS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF BACK BUILDING AND SHIFTING SOUTH IN LAST
HOUR. AGAIN SEE NO COMPELLING REASON TO CHANGE THE FORECAST FOR
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL MAKE SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH
06Z AND RAISE THEM BACK UP NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THROUGH 06Z.
TORNADO WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 2 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS STORMS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY FORMING OUT WEST EVENTUALLY GROW INTO ONE OR MORE
CLUSTERS THAT MOVE EAST OR SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
TEMPO GROUPS WILL ATTEMPT TO HIT THE WINDOW OF GREATEST
THREAT...HOWEVER THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LATER GIVEN THE
LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF STORM ACTIVITY AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/

DISCUSSION...
A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...AND MOST NOTABLY FROM FAR EASTERN OK INTO WESTERN AR.
CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN FESTERING ALONG THE MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ZONE HAS RECENTLY BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED...AND AS IT
DOES SO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY. ANY SUSTAINED
SUPERCELL WHICH CAN DEVIATE ENOUGH WOULD POSE A TORNADIC RISK.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHOSE TO HIGHLIGHT A ZONE ALONG
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN EXPECTED
MOVEMENT...THOUGH CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH AREAWIDE. THE
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT SHOULD FAVOR THE MORE SEVERE
STORMS ON THE WESTERN FLANK WHERE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE LIKELY.

THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORMS...ALONG WITH A
LESSER DEFINED SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE THAN
TODAY AND WILL JUST MAINTAIN THE LOWER POPS FOR SOUTH.

BEYOND MONDAY THE REMNANT BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA BENEATH
AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGING. THIS SURFACE FOCUS WILL SUPPORT A DAILY
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHING
SOUTH AND WEST WITH TIME. UPPER RIDGING REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NEXT WEEKEND THOUGH SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
WEAKNESS ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SHOULD THIS DEVELOP THEN
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD LIKELY INCREASE A BIT. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  91  69  87 /  80  10  10  10
FSM   71  90  70  88 /  70  20  10  20
MLC   72  89  69  88 /  70  20  20  20
BVO   68  91  67  86 /  80  10  10  10
FYV   67  87  65  84 /  70  20  10  10
BYV   66  86  64  83 /  60  20  10  10
MKO   70  90  68  88 /  80  20  10  10
MIO   69  90  66  84 /  70  10  10  10
F10   71  89  68  87 /  80  10  10  20
HHW   71  89  71  88 /  70  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
245 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041945-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
245 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...EARLY THIS MORNING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGONG.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 65 MILES AN HOUR
REPORTED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. EARLIER SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS
RESULTED IN SOME 4 TO 7 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THIS IS RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING IN SOME
AREAS....MAINLY IN PARTS OF ROGERS...TULSA AND OSAGE COUNTIES OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WITH THE STORMS NOW MOVING
QUICKER...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE 1 TO 2 INCH AT MOST.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING WITH A
CONTINUED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. OTHERWISE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
WEEK CONTINUING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
233 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 AM     FLASH FLOOD      S TULSA                 36.13N 95.92W
06/04/2012                   TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TRAFFIC BEING SHUT DOWN NEAR 101ST AND MEMORIAL IN SOUTH
            TULSA.

0228 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W SKIATOOK            36.37N 96.02W
06/04/2012                   OSAGE              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER IN HOMES AND RESIDENTIAL RESCUES UNDERWAY NEAR OAK
            AND HANEY STREETS.

&&

KAH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
307 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 S WYNONA              36.52N 96.33W
06/04/2012  M62 MPH          OSAGE              OK   MESONET

&&

KAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

OKZ054-059>061-064-040845-
CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-
311 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN CREEK...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...EASTERN PAWNEE...
     WESTERN ROGERS AND NORTHERN TULSA

AT 311 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH OF
WALNUT CREEK STATE PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TULSA...GRAY...AVANT...
SAND SPRINGS...OWASSO...SPERRY...SKIATOOK...COLLINSVILLE AND WALNUT
CREEK STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3655 9613 3647 9600 3642 9600 3642 9593
      3630 9573 3602 9613 3633 9643
TIME...MOT...LOC 0811Z 314DEG 30KT 3637 9621

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
327 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S CHECOTAH            35.43N 95.52W
06/04/2012                   MCINTOSH           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE LIMBS DOWN ACROSS COUNTY ROADS.

&&

KAH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
330 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

OKZ065-070>076-040915-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKFUSKEE
OK-PITTSBURG OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
330 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 415 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     HASKELL...NORTHERN LE FLORE...SOUTHERN MCINTOSH...NORTHEASTERN
     PITTSBURG AND NORTHERN LATIMER

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE...SOUTHEASTERN OKFUSKEE AND SOUTHWESTERN
     SEQUOYAH

AT 330 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A BROKEN LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES EAST OF MC KEY TO 4 MILES WEST OF BRIARTOWN TO
6 MILES NORTH OF VERNON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...MCCURTAIN...
STIGLER...LEQUIRE...LEWISVILLE...KINTA...ENTERPRISE...WHITEFIELD...
KEOTA...KANIMA...TAMAHA...SALLISAW...GANS...MC KEY...VIAN...
COWLINGTON...EUFAULA...HANNA...VERNON...RAIFORD...VIVIAN...BLOCKER...
FEATHERSTON...CROWDER...QUINTON...INDIANOLA...CANADIAN...BRIARTOWN...
PORUM...ARROWHEAD STATE PARK AND BRUSHY LAKE STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3536 9535 3556 9483 3528 9460 3504 9518
      3503 9589 3524 9600 3528 9599 3529 9602
      3537 9606
TIME...MOT...LOC 0830Z 336DEG 18KT 3548 9484 3528 9531
          3528 9590