Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1152 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE OK IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
AN ATTEMPT WAS MADE TO TIME THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY TIME WINDOW
FOR THE VARIOUS TERMINALS BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA.
STORMS SHOULD EXIT ALL SITES BY 15Z MONDAY MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED
AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VCNTY OF THE KFSM AND KMLC
TERMINALS ON MONDAY...ENDING BY AROUND 00Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF STORM ACTIVITY.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND ATTENDANT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND
WITH THE FINER DETAILS OF HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT TWO AREAS OF INTEREST AT THE MOMENT ARE
CONVECTION BLOSSOMING OVER WEST CENTRAL OK AND BAND OF STORMS
ACROSS SE KANSAS. SHORT RANGE HI RES MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH THE WESTERN OK STORMS GROWING INTO SOUTHEAST MOVING MCS THAT
GENERALLY REMAINS WEST OF OUR AREA...WHILE DEVELOPING LARGE
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER NE OKLAHOMA FROM 03-06Z. SE KANSAS
STORMS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF BACK BUILDING AND SHIFTING SOUTH IN LAST
HOUR. AGAIN SEE NO COMPELLING REASON TO CHANGE THE FORECAST FOR
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL MAKE SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH
06Z AND RAISE THEM BACK UP NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THROUGH 06Z.
TORNADO WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 2 AM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/

DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND BELOW.

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS STORMS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY FORMING OUT WEST EVENTUALLY GROW INTO ONE OR MORE
CLUSTERS THAT MOVE EAST OR SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
TEMPO GROUPS WILL ATTEMPT TO HIT THE WINDOW OF GREATEST
THREAT...HOWEVER THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LATER GIVEN THE
LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF STORM ACTIVITY AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD.

LACY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012/

DISCUSSION...
A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...AND MOST NOTABLY FROM FAR EASTERN OK INTO WESTERN AR.
CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN FESTERING ALONG THE MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ZONE HAS RECENTLY BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED...AND AS IT
DOES SO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY. ANY SUSTAINED
SUPERCELL WHICH CAN DEVIATE ENOUGH WOULD POSE A TORNADIC RISK.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHOSE TO HIGHLIGHT A ZONE ALONG
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN EXPECTED
MOVEMENT...THOUGH CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH AREAWIDE. THE
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT SHOULD FAVOR THE MORE SEVERE
STORMS ON THE WESTERN FLANK WHERE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE LIKELY.

THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORMS...ALONG WITH A
LESSER DEFINED SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE THAN
TODAY AND WILL JUST MAINTAIN THE LOWER POPS FOR SOUTH.

BEYOND MONDAY THE REMNANT BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA BENEATH
AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGING. THIS SURFACE FOCUS WILL SUPPORT A DAILY
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHING
SOUTH AND WEST WITH TIME. UPPER RIDGING REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NEXT WEEKEND THOUGH SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
WEAKNESS ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SHOULD THIS DEVELOP THEN
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD LIKELY INCREASE A BIT. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  91  69  87 /  80  10  10  10
FSM   71  90  70  88 /  70  20  10  20
MLC   72  89  69  88 /  70  20  20  20
BVO   68  91  67  86 /  80  10  10  10
FYV   67  87  65  84 /  70  20  10  10
BYV   66  86  64  83 /  60  20  10  10
MKO   70  90  68  88 /  80  20  10  10
MIO   69  90  66  84 /  70  10  10  10
F10   71  89  68  87 /  80  10  10  20
HHW   71  89  71  88 /  70  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
722 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
722 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...LATE EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE EVENING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THOUGH SOME ELEVATED STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF KANSAS
COULD INTENSIFY AS THEY ENCOUNTER A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING AS STORMS OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL
LIKELY GROW INTO ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES AS THEY MOVE
EAST. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS WITH THE OVERNIGHT STORMS...THOUGH A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT
WILL EXIST LATE THIS EVENING IN AREAS TO THE WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING WITH A
CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. OTHERWISE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS WEEK CONTINUING
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1226 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

OKZ062-067-068-040600-
CHEROKEE OK-MAYES OK-WAGONER OK-
1226 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN CHEROKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN MAYES AND EASTERN WAGONER

AT 1227 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF WAGONER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...HULBERT...LOST CITY...WAGONER AND
SEQUOYAH STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3602 9490 3580 9507 3595 9540 3614 9529
TIME...MOT...LOC 0527Z 298DEG 22KT 3601 9524

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1228 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

OKZ061-062-067-040600-
MAYES OK-ROGERS OK-WAGONER OK-
1228 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN MAYES...SOUTHERN ROGERS AND NORTHERN WAGONER

AT 1228 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CLAREMORE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CLAREMORE...INOLA...VERDIGRIS AND
TIAWAH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3630 9530 3604 9543 3622 9580 3642 9568
TIME...MOT...LOC 0528Z 288DEG 16KT 3627 9563

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

OKZ054-055-060-061-040630-
OSAGE OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
100 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 130 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...SOUTHWESTERN ROGERS...NORTHERN TULSA AND
     SOUTHERN WASHINGTON

AT 101 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF
SKIATOOK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TULSA...OWASSO...SPERRY...SKIATOOK
AND COLLINSVILLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3622 9567 3611 9596 3641 9617 3651 9598
TIME...MOT...LOC 0601Z 313DEG 25KT 3635 9593

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
104 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

OKZ057-062-063-040630-
CRAIG OK-DELAWARE OK-MAYES OK-
104 AM CDT MON JUN 4 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 130 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG...DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MAYES

AT 105 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF
KETCHUM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...JAY...CHLOETA...ZENA...CLEORA...
BERNICE...KETCHUM...LANGLEY...DISNEY...BERNICE STATE PARK...CHEROKEE
STATE PARK...DISNEY LITTLE BLUE STATE PARK...LAKE EUCHA STATE PARK
AND HONEY CREEK STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3650 9461 3627 9480 3649 9511 3667 9498
TIME...MOT...LOC 0605Z 304DEG 12KT 3651 9495