Alert archive / Arkansas / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

June 3, 2012Carroll County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at Jun 3, 2012, 3:57 PM CDT for Carroll County, Arkansas. It was in force for 33 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 3, 2012, 3:57 PM CDT (20:57 UTC)
Expired: Jun 3, 2012, 4:30 PM CDT
In force: 33 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK

County Carroll County, AR

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 88 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1767 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 113 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 162 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jun 3, 3:41 PM CDT, 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 3, 3:41 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
341 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...AND MOST NOTABLY FROM FAR EASTERN OK INTO WESTERN AR.
CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN FESTERING ALONG THE MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ZONE HAS RECENTLY BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED...AND AS IT
DOES SO THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY. ANY SUSTAINED
SUPERCELL WHICH CAN DEVIATE ENOUGH WOULD POSE A TORNADIC RISK.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHOSE TO HIGHLIGHT A ZONE ALONG
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN EXPECTED
MOVEMENT...THOUGH CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH AREAWIDE. THE
VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT SHOULD FAVOR THE MORE SEVERE
STORMS ON THE WESTERN FLANK WHERE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE LIKELY.

THE RESULTANT OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT STORMS...ALONG WITH A
LESSER DEFINED SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE THAN
TODAY AND WILL JUST MAINTAIN THE LOWER POPS FOR SOUTH.

BEYOND MONDAY THE REMNANT BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA BENEATH
AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGING. THIS SURFACE FOCUS WILL SUPPORT A DAILY
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY PUSHING
SOUTH AND WEST WITH TIME. UPPER RIDGING REMAINS LARGELY IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO NEXT WEEKEND THOUGH SOME MODELS SUGGEST A
WEAKNESS ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SHOULD THIS DEVELOP THEN
DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD LIKELY INCREASE A BIT. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  91  69  87 /  80  10  10  10
FSM   71  90  70  88 /  70  20  10  20
MLC   72  89  69  88 /  70  20  20  20
BVO   68  91  67  86 /  80  10  10  10
FYV   67  87  65  84 /  70  20  10  10
BYV   66  86  64  83 /  60  20  10  10
MKO   70  90  68  88 /  80  20  10  10
MIO   69  90  66  84 /  70  10  10  10
F10   71  89  68  87 /  80  10  10  20
HHW   71  89  71  88 /  70  20  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM....07

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 3, 1:22 PM CDT, 2 hours 35 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
122 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
121 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN INITIATE IN THIS
AIRMASS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...THE RISK OF A TORNADO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY PHASE OF CONVECTION
NEAR LINGERING BOUNDARIES.

THE EXPECTED SCENARIO...A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LINE SHOULD IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70 DEGREES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF CONVECTION
CAN INITIALLY OVERCOME A MID LEVEL CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP ABUNDANT POTENTIAL ENERGY
EXISTS FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

SHOULD CONVECTION FAIL TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...AN UPPER WAVE THIS EVENING WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OR AN MCS OR TWO FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
OR KANSAS WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH BACK INTO THE
AREA EARLY THIS COMING WEEK CONTINUING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 3, 3:30 PM CDT, 27 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
330 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

ARZ010-019-OKZ069-032100-
ADAIR OK-CRAWFORD AR-WASHINGTON AR-
330 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN ADAIR

AT 330 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MARIETTA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MARIETTA...STILWELL...ODELL...
MORROW...CLYDE...CANEHILL AND ADAIR STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3593 9437 3571 9433 3571 9477 3583 9480
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 261DEG 22KT 3578 9471

Special weather statement, Jun 3, 3:57 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
357 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

ARZ002-032130-
CARROLL AR-
357 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL

AT 357 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER DRYFORK...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM INCLUDE...OSAGE...DRYFORK...DELMAR...METALTON...RUDD AND
CONNOR.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3612 9330 3612 9354 3613 9355 3615 9355
      3616 9357 3628 9350 3625 9329 3612 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 291DEG 23KT 3616 9348

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 3, 1:41 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	49 min
Jun 3, 1:46 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Rogers	44 min
Jun 3, 2:13 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Mayes, Rogers	62 min
Jun 3, 3:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Adair	30 min
Jun 3, 4:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll	33 min
Jun 3, 4:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Washington	46 min
Jun 3, 4:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Madison, Washington	30 min
Jun 3, 4:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Madison	43 min
Jun 3, 5:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Madison	40 min
Jun 3, 5:15 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	45 min
Jun 3, 5:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Washington	54 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arkansas, 2012 Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.