Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1107 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...
MAJOR RAMP UP IN POPS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN
MORNING DATA AND LATEST MODELS. CLEAR SLOT
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA IN H850
MAX  TEMP AXIS  WHICH SHOULD LET THAT AREA
REACH CONVECTIVE TEMP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMP REACHED MACHO CAPE TO
YIELD TALL THUNDER. SEVERE THUNDER GRID TO
BE UPDATED BY 1 PM HWO ISSUANCE TIME.   GW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  73  91  70 /  60  40  10  10
FSM   94  71  90  71 /  50  20  30  20
MLC   91  73  90  70 /  40  20  30  30
BVO   92  70  90  68 /  60  50  10  10
FYV   90  69  86  67 /  50  30  20  10
BYV   88  68  85  66 /  60  50  30  10
MKO   93  71  90  70 /  60  30  20  10
MIO   90  70  88  68 /  60  50  10  10
F10   92  71  90  70 /  60  30  20  20
HHW   92  72  92  71 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
122 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
121 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...EVENING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN INITIATE IN THIS
AIRMASS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...THE RISK OF A TORNADO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY PHASE OF CONVECTION
NEAR LINGERING BOUNDARIES.

THE EXPECTED SCENARIO...A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS IN CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LINE SHOULD IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS
AROUND 70 DEGREES. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO IF CONVECTION
CAN INITIALLY OVERCOME A MID LEVEL CAP BY LATE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP ABUNDANT POTENTIAL ENERGY
EXISTS FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

SHOULD CONVECTION FAIL TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...AN UPPER WAVE THIS EVENING WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OR AN MCS OR TWO FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
OR KANSAS WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL SAG SOUTH BACK INTO THE
AREA EARLY THIS COMING WEEK CONTINUING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
330 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

ARZ010-019-OKZ069-032100-
ADAIR OK-CRAWFORD AR-WASHINGTON AR-
330 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN ADAIR

AT 330 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF MARIETTA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MARIETTA...STILWELL...ODELL...
MORROW...CLYDE...CANEHILL AND ADAIR STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3593 9437 3571 9433 3571 9477 3583 9480
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 261DEG 22KT 3578 9471