Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
945 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.DISCUSSION...
STORM EVOLUTION INTO A SOUTHEAST MOVING COMPLEX IS WELL UNDERWAY
WITH A TRANSITION AWAY FROM A HAIL THREAT AND TOWARDS A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA SO THE WORST OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM HERE ON
OUT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MILES AN HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE.

HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY COVER OVERNIGHT TO FIT CURRENT AND
EXPECTED TRENDS WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST LEFT AS IS FOR NOW.
WE WILL LIKELY BEGIN CANCELLING COUNTIES FROM THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH SHORTLY.

UPDATE ON THE WAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
516 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
516 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTER 7 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 7 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTER 7 PM.

DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...FAVORABLE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. THESE
CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...THOUGH A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
WITH MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY NIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINING OVER THE REGION...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND INTERESTED PERSONS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1117 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1049 PM     HAIL             9 SE SCIPIO             34.96N 95.84W
05/29/2012  E0.75 INCH       PITTSBURG          OK   PUBLIC

            PENNY HAIL REPORTED AT PUMPKIN CENTER.

&&

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1117 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

ARZ010-019-029-OKZ068-069-072-074-076-300515-
ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-CRAWFORD AR-HASKELL OK-LE FLORE OK-SEBASTIAN
AR-SEQUOYAH OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1117 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1215 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CRAWFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN CHEROKEE AND SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN HASKELL AND NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN ADAIR

AT 1116 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF BUNCH TO 4 MILES NORTH OF
KEOTA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  HIGH WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
WELL AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3573 9400 3566 9404 3566 9407 3558 9407
      3512 9427 3524 9507 3586 9480
TIME...MOT...LOC 0416Z 281DEG 26KT 3576 9473 3531 9492