Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
638 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WILL MOVE ERRATICALLY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ORGANIZING
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF
SITES PRIOR TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012/

DISCUSSION...

A WEAK AND RATHER DIFFUSE QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCAL MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN INSTABILITY MAXIMUM AND A
WEAKENED CAP ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. CU FIELD
ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO ARKANSAS IS DEVELOPING WHERE
THE CAP IS THE WEAKEST.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY HOLD
OFF UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS CERTAINLY
NOT ZERO. THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA...EVENTUALLY FORMING INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS AND MOVING
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE LARGE HAIL /DUE TO VERY HIGH
INSTABILITIES/ AND CERTAINLY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS. OVERALL
TORNADO THREAT IS LOW DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ALTHOUGH
BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS. LOCAL WRF...ALONG
WITH THE ARW AND NMM RUNS...HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN BOW SEGMENT
STRUCTURES IN THEIR REFLECTIVITY SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT.

MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z
TOMORROW...WITH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME PERIOD LIKELY REMAINING DRY.
THE CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON STORMS IS GREATER TOMORROW THAN TODAY
OR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. STORMS COULD FORM AND ENTER NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE AREA AS EARLY AS 4 OR 5 PM...WITH MOST OF THE AREA
LIKELY TO SEE STORMS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STORMS ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO FORM INTO A COMPLEX THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...POSING MAINLY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE
RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO GREATER
TOMORROW NIGHT. INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD ALSO INCREASE THE
TORNADO THREAT FOR ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

STORM CHANCES WILL TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA
ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK...BEFORE A WARMING
TREND COMMENCES DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
516 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
516 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTER 7 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER 7 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...AFTER 7 PM.

DISCUSSION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS
BOUNDARY...FAVORABLE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING. THESE
CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AND MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...THOUGH A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
WITH MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY NIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
REMAINING OVER THE REGION...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND INTERESTED PERSONS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
929 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

OKZ067-068-070>072-300315-
CHEROKEE OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-WAGONER OK-
929 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN CHEROKEE...EASTERN MUSKOGEE AND NORTHWESTERN SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN MCINTOSH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN WAGONER

AT 929 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES WEST OF WAGONER TO 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF
RENTIESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...PUMPKIN CENTER...GORE...HULBERT...
LOST CITY...WAGONER...TULLAHASSEE...OKAY...RENTIESVILLE...MUSKOGEE...
WARNER...OKTAHA...KEEFETON...SUMMIT...BRAGGS...FORT GIBSON...WEBBERS
FALLS...SEQUOYAH STATE PARK AND GREENLEAF STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3608 9502 3538 9512 3550 9556 3607 9549
TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 274DEG 35KT 3601 9562 3559 9567

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
934 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

OKZ065-066-300300-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
934 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     OKFUSKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN OKMULGEE

AT 934 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF OKEMAH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OKEMAH...BEARDEN...CLEARVIEW...
PHAROAH...CASTLE...PADEN...BOLEY...MASON...OKFUSKEE AND OKMULGEE
STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3567 9606 3564 9598 3528 9618 3528 9641
      3530 9645 3545 9645 3545 9648 3543 9649
      3545 9655 3543 9655 3540 9653 3539 9654
      3541 9663 3551 9663
TIME...MOT...LOC 0234Z 315DEG 16KT 3540 9632

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
939 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

OKZ060>062-067-300315-
MAYES OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
939 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1015 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN MAYES...SOUTHERN ROGERS...EASTERN TULSA AND
     NORTHWESTERN WAGONER

AT 940 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF
ONETA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TULSA...INOLA...CATOOSA...VERDIGRIS...
TIAWAH...ONETA...PRYOR...MAZIE AND CHOUTEAU.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3635 9531 3607 9533 3595 9573 3629 9583
TIME...MOT...LOC 0240Z 266DEG 26KT 3610 9563