Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1149 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT KBVO/KFYV/KXNA DURING
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AT ALL SITES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/

DISCUSSION...
PRIME EVENING CONVECTION JUST OUTSIDE OF TSA FORECAST
REGION.  PAYNE/LOGAN COUNTY CONVECTION WAS IN HOLDING
PATTERN NEAR ALMOST STATIONARY  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
VIA MESO-LOW.  IN LAST 30 MINUTES THAT CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PROPAGATING SOUTH.

OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
GENERALLY IN I-44 VICINITY LACKING PUNCH. SHORT RANGE
HR CUBED MODEL HAS BEEN FAIR WITH EVENING CONVECTION.
SAME MODEL EVENTUALLY EXPANDS  THUNDER AREA EAST INTO
MUCH OF EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR ABOUT AS FORECAST.
HAIL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT..MAYBE EVEN MARGINALLY SEVERE
BUT SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED AT MOST.                GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND WILL ONLY MENTION VCTS AT KFYV AND KXNA LATER TONIGHT
AS THESE SITES ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A STORM NEAR THE SITE. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012/

DISCUSSION...

UNSEASONABLY HOT AGAIN TODAY...WITH MORE HUMIDITY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THAN YESTERDAY. PERSISTENT CU DECK ASSOCIATED WITH
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG INTERSTATE 44 IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT HAS SLOWED
CONSIDERABLY...AND HAS BEEN LARGELY STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON
EXTENDING FROM FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
LOCAL MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A STILL POTENT...BUT SLOW WEAKENING OF
THE CAP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT...SO ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT
BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING CEASES. MORE LIKELY...HOWEVER...IS SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW WITHIN
THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE
ARW...NMM...AND OUR LOCAL WRF RUNS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY DRY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...AND
ALSO LIKELY WEDNESDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TOMORROW NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS FROM TOMORROW NIGHTS EXPECTED MCS SHOULD KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
REAL COOL AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW.

BOTH TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PARAMETERS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL...
ESPECIALLY DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS FROM A WELL DEVELOPED MCS
AND BOWING SEGMENTS. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE GREATEST
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...WHERE SOME AREAS COULD PICK
UP AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE THESE EVENTS MIGHT SPARE
TULSA AT THE LAST MINUTE FROM SEEING ITS DRIEST MAY ON RECORD.

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING EACH DAY BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
516 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
515 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MID TO LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST AXIS FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO  SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IS EXPECTED
TO ERUPT INTO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  MORE THAN AMPLE INSTABILITY... WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPE VALUES OF   2500 TO 3500 J/KG   WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
JUST MARGINAL SHEAR. THUS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WIND A LESSER THREAT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS THAT MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE FORM
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN EVEN GREATER CHANCE FOR ONE
OR MORE WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO AFFECT OUR AREA
WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL AID IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORM COMPLEXES
AS THEY SWEEP SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1208 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

OKZ066>068-070-071-290545-
CHEROKEE OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-WAGONER OK-
1208 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHERN MUSKOGEE

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN MCINTOSH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN OKMULGEE AND SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER

AT 1208 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF PORTER TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF
HOFFMAN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...HOFFMAN...ERAM...HULBERT...WAGONER...
CHOSKA...TULLAHASSEE...PORTER...OKAY...CHECOTAH...STIDHAM...ONAPA...
PIERCE...HITCHITA...RENTIESVILLE...MUSKOGEE...COUNCIL HILL...
OKTAHA...KEEFETON...WAINWRIGHT...BOYNTON...SUMMIT...JAMESVILLE...
TAFT...FORT GIBSON...LAKE EUFAULA STATE PARK AND SEQUOYAH STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3597 9507 3534 9547 3534 9597 3597 9553
TIME...MOT...LOC 0508Z 271DEG 29KT 3589 9547 3537 9584

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1219 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

OKZ057-058-063-290615-
CRAIG OK-DELAWARE OK-OTTAWA OK-
1219 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 115 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN CRAIG...NORTHWESTERN DELAWARE AND OTTAWA

AT 1219 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF WELCH TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF PYRAMID
CORNERS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...MIAMI...COMMERCE...AFTON...FAIRLAND...
NARCISSA...WYANDOTTE...OTTAWA...PEORIA...QUAPAW...CARDIN...PICHER...
PYRAMID CORNERS...BLUEJACKET...WELCH AND TWIN BRIDGES STATE PARK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3699 9461 3668 9461 3663 9525 3699 9521
      3701 9511 3700 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0519Z 248DEG 15KT 3694 9511 3668 9512