Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
516 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-291000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
515 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...MID TO LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MOIST AXIS FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO  SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IS EXPECTED
TO ERUPT INTO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  MORE THAN AMPLE INSTABILITY... WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPE VALUES OF   2500 TO 3500 J/KG   WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
JUST MARGINAL SHEAR. THUS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL...WITH DAMAGING WIND A LESSER THREAT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS THAT MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE FORM
OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN EVEN GREATER CHANCE FOR ONE
OR MORE WELL ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO AFFECT OUR AREA
WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL AID IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORM COMPLEXES
AS THEY SWEEP SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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