Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1140 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

.DISCUSSION...

THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
THE NEXT 6 OR SO HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS AT KBVO WHERE MVFR
CIGS REMAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG
WINDS AND LOWER VSBYS INTO THE MVFR OR IFR RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. STORMS SHOULD BE GONE BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURN WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD
VFR BY MIDDAY...AND WILL REMAIN THERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST AOA 25 KTS AT THE NE OK AND
NW AR SITES ON TUESDAY.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG AND NEAR THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS
BORDER THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN NOWATA AND CRAIG
COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL STRONG CONVECTION RESIDED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA MOVING EASTWARD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS INSTABILITY REMAINS
FAVORABLE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS WITH ALSO A TORNADO THREAT
CONTINUES WITH THESE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A TORNADO WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ALSO FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS UNTIL 07 UTC. EVENING UPDATE WILL BE TO UP POPS
ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER FOR OVERNIGHT AND TWEAKED SKY/TEMP GRIDS
AS WELL. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOK TO BE GOOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  65  85  68 / MMM  80  30  10
FSM   79  66  85  67 / MMM  40  20  10
MLC   80  67  85  68 / MMM  40  20  10
BVO   80  64  83  66 / MMM  80  40  10
FYV   76  64  82  65 / MMM  50  30  10
BYV   78  64  82  64 / MMM  50  30  10
MKO   80  66  84  67 / MMM  80  30  10
MIO   78  64  83  66 / MMM  80  40  10
F10   81  66  84  67 / MMM  80  30  10
HHW   81  67  85  68 / MMM  40  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059.

AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
816 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
808 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING...WHILE A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS PUSHING
EASTWARD OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE...WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FAVORABLE INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE REGION WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A
TORNADO THREAT TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL ALSO CONTINUE
FOR FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS BORDERS AS HEAVY
RAINS ARE PROBABLE ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVED FLOODING RAINS LAST
NIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY AS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS BEEN
OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERAL DAYS LIFTS TO THE NORTH. SOUTH WINDS
WILL BECOME STRONG TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
LIKELY. VERY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1226 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2012

OKZ054-060-061-064-066-067-070-010615-
CREEK OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER
OK-
1226 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 115 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN CREEK...NORTHERN OKMULGEE...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...
     SOUTHWESTERN ROGERS...TULSA AND WESTERN WAGONER

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN MUSKOGEE

AT 1226 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SAND SPRINGS TO SLICK...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...TULSA...
LIBERTY...GRAY...PRESTON...BEGGS...BALD HILL...HECTORVILLE...SAND
SPRINGS...LEONARD...BIXBY...JENKS...GLENPOOL...BROKEN ARROW...
STONEBLUFF...COWETA...ONETA...SLICK...MOUNDS...KIEFER...KELLYVILLE
AND SAPULPA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3616 9554 3566 9576 3573 9637 3623 9620
TIME...MOT...LOC 0526Z 260DEG 37KT 3615 9610 3577 9627

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1256 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2012

OKZ064>066-010645-
CREEK OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
1256 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 145 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWESTERN CREEK AND WESTERN OKMULGEE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     OKFUSKEE

AT 1256 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST
OF PADEN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OKEMAH...CLEARVIEW...PHAROAH...
CASTLE...PADEN...BOLEY...MASON...OKFUSKEE AND WELTY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS
UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3571 9663 3570 9610 3537 9609 3538 9645
      3545 9645 3545 9648 3543 9649 3545 9655
      3543 9655 3540 9653 3538 9654 3540 9658
      3539 9660 3540 9663
TIME...MOT...LOC 0556Z 267DEG 33KT 3554 9656

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