Areal Flood Warning 26, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
652 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012

.DISCUSSION...

THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION CAN BE FOUND BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z AT MOST SITES. A TS
COMPLEX IS EXPTD TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER TONIGHT...AND
THIS MAY IMPACT THE NE OK TERMINALS...BUT PROBABLY NOT BEFORE 04Z.
MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN BY 12Z AT MOST SITES EXCPT KFSM...BEFORE
BECOMING VFR BY MIDDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG ON
TUESDAY...WITH GUSTS AOA 25 KTS FOR THE NE OK AND NW AR SITES.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT MON APR 30 2012/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS NE OK FOR NOW...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ONGOING ACROSS SE OK AND WC AR THIS
AFTERNOON. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO NE OK TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE NIGHT IS IN THE OFFING. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF NE OK...AS THESE
AREAS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED FLOODING RAINS THAT HAS PROMPTED
SEVERAL RESCUE EFFORTS ACROSS OSAGE COUNTY THROUGH THIS MORNING.
WHILE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE DETAILS OF TONIGHTS
EVENT...ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...EVEN IN
LESSER AMOUNTS...WILL RAPIDLY AGGRAVATE FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE
WATCH AREA. THE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM
TUESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY...THEN A WARM
HUMID AND CAPPED PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE
HOLD FROM WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CARVES OUT THE NEXT TROUGH THAT WILL STAY TO THE
WEST FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL AID IN KEEPING THE
RIDGE INTACT OVER THE PLAINS. TEMP WISE... STAYED CLOSER TO THE
WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR THE EARLY PERIODS...AND OPTED FOR WEIGHTED
ECMWF NUMBERS IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  85  68  87 /  50  30  10  10
FSM   66  85  67  86 /  40  20  10  10
MLC   67  85  68  86 /  40  20  10  10
BVO   64  83  66  86 /  60  40  10  10
FYV   63  82  65  84 /  50  30  10  10
BYV   62  82  64  86 /  50  30  10  10
MKO   66  84  67  85 /  50  30  10  10
MIO   63  83  66  86 /  60  40  10  10
F10   66  84  67  85 /  50  30  10  10
HHW   67  85  68  86 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059.

AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...30

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