Areal Flood Advisory 9, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
941 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

.DISCUSSION...
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD EVENT IS WELL UNDERWAY. 2 TO
4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS BEEN COMMON ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
THERE IS MORE TO COME...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A SEVERE/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT REMAINS WITH
THE LEADING EDGE CONVECTION BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN
TO WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS BUT THE REST OF THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ055-
     OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ072-
     OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....05

PLATE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
517 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
517 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

...DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED
   TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
        RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A LARGE
PART OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF ARKANSAS.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES AHEAD OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BENTONVILLE ARKANSAS TO NORTH OF MCALESTER.
HOWEVER...A STRONG CAP HAS THUS FAR PREVENTED SURFACE BASED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS STILL EXISTS WITH
STORMS BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BUT IF ANY STORMS CAN BECOME
SURFACE BASED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...THEY WILL POSE THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL
BE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING. SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ONE TO SEVERAL INCHES WILL BE LIKELY FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
BANDS OF VERY HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY MORNING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DANGEROUS...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT /OKCFFATSA/ ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA. ALSO...DEPENDING ON THE
AVAILABLE SURFACE INSTABILITY...AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SEVERE WEATHER
PROBABILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED AS SHORTER TERM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING FOR A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE
WEEKEND.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...FIRST RESPONDERS...AND OTHER INTERESTED
PARTIES SHOULD PREPARE FOR DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE
THREATENING FLOODING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SWIFT WATER RESCUES
MAY BE NECESSARY AS ROADS BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO THE HIGH WATER.
IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS MAIN-STEM RIVERS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS COULD EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING BY
MID WEEK. PERSONS SHOULD CONSIDER CANCELLING ANY OUTDOOR CAMPING
ACTIVITIES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN ANY FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
930 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TAHLEQUAH               35.92N 94.97W
03/19/2012                   CHEROKEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TAHLEQUAH EOC REPORTS STREETS IN TOWN BEING CLOSED DUE TO
            HIGH WATER.

&&

SFP

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1035 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1143 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 E TULSA               36.13N 95.83W
03/19/2012                   TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT OF POWER POLES DAMAMAGED NEAR 45TH AND SOUTH 129TH
            EAST AVENUE IN TULSA

0240 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PRYOR                   36.31N 95.32W
03/19/2012                   MAYES              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS HAVE BEEN CLOSED IN PRYOR.

0250 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JENKS                   36.02N 95.97W
03/19/2012                   TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

            STRANDED VEHICLES NEAR 81ST AND ELWOOD

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BIXBY                   35.94N 95.88W
03/19/2012                   TULSA              OK   PUBLIC

            WATER REPORTED OVER SEVERAL ROADS/STREETS IN PARTS OF
            BIXBY.

0330 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CHOUTEAU                36.19N 95.34W
03/19/2012                   MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STREET AND ROAD FLOODING NEAR CHOUTEAU

0340 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SSW TULSA             36.07N 95.96W
03/19/2012                   TULSA              OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADS BEING CLOSED AROUND HIGHWAY 75 AND 61ST STREET.

0433 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W TULSA               36.13N 96.01W
03/19/2012                   TULSA              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RIVERSIDE DRIVE CLOSED BETWEEN 21ST AND 31ST DUE TO
            FLOODING.

0730 PM     HAIL             WHITEFIELD              35.25N 95.24W
03/19/2012  E1.75 INCH       HASKELL            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

0858 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N OKAY                35.88N 95.32W
03/19/2012                   WAGONER            OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            STATE HIGHWAY 16 IS CLOSED DUE TO HIGH WATER...2 MILES
            NORTH OF OKAY.

0925 PM     FLASH FLOOD      TAHLEQUAH               35.92N 94.97W
03/19/2012                   CHEROKEE           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TAHLEQUAH EOC REPORTS STREETS IN TOWN BEING CLOSED DUE TO
            HIGH WATER.

0950 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MULDROW                 35.41N 94.60W
03/19/2012                   SEQUOYAH           OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BARN BLOWN INTO HOUSE.

0956 PM     TSTM WND GST     UNIONTOWN               35.58N 94.44W
03/19/2012  E60.00 MPH       CRAWFORD           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROLAND                  35.42N 94.51W
03/19/2012                   SEQUOYAH           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER POLE AND TREES DOWN IN ROLAND.

&&

AEJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1046 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CEDARVILLE              35.57N 94.37W
03/19/2012                   CRAWFORD           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            3 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN AT AR HWY 220 EAST AND LUCIAN
            WOOD ROAD NEAR CEDARVILLE.

&&

AEJ