Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
344 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

.DISCUSSION...

NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PERSIST ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
AT MID AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I 70 IN
ASSOCIATION WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED INTO THE
EVENING. A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NEBRASKA
BORDER IN A HIGHER THETA-E ADVECTION/DEEPER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THAT AREA BY EVENING AND MAY AFFECT THE FAR
EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING. WILL GO WITH A PRE FIRST PERIOD IN THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. MORE CONVECTION MAY ALSO
DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH REMNANT MCV AND
VORT MAX IN NORTHEAST CO AS THEY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS
CONVECTION MAY THEN AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...THEN THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST. PRECIP CHANCES WILL END OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY
OVERSPREADING THE CWA FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. 63

MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA AS
DRIER NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OCCURS. FOR MUCH OF THE UP COMING WEEK
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. A NORTHEAST TO EAST
SURFACE FLOW WILL BE NOTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS
BECOME SOUTHEAST. WITH THE ABOVE PATTERN EXPECT A DRY WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR JULY.

53

&&

.AVIATION...

COMPLICATED FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AT TERMINALS.
OVERALL VFR CONDS PREVAIL WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS. WIDELY SCT
STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 03Z. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPO
GROUPS INSERTED AT KTOP/KMHK FOR ONGOING CONVECTION...VCTS WAS
USED BASED ON THE LACK OF STRONG UPPER FORCING...WIDESPREAD
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH INTERSECTING SFC BOUNDARIES CREATING MUCH
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE/WHEN CONVECTION EVOLVES. PREDOMINANT
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS MAY BECOME ERRATIC AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
PASS OVERHEAD. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD
AS CONVECTION FORMS.

BOWEN

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
333 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

KSZ026-040-082045-
DOUGLAS-JEFFERSON-
333 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND NORTH
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

THROUGH 345 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE SOUTH AT 5 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND NORTH CENTRAL DOUGLAS
COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM
IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE NORTH LAWRENCE.

&&

LAT...LON 3897 9524 3900 9529 3905 9531 3914 9530
      3917 9523 3910 9518 3905 9518 3901 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 353DEG 4KT 3908 9524

$$ BARJENBRUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
400 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNE LAWRENCE AIRPORT  39.06N 95.20W
07/08/2012  E60 MPH          JEFFERSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BYRNE

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