Alert archive / Kansas / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

June 10, 2012Brown County, Kansas

NWS Topeka, KS issued this special weather statement at Jun 10, 2012, 10:59 PM CDT for Brown County, Kansas. It was in force for 16 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 10, 2012, 10:59 PM CDT (03:59 UTC)
Expired: Jun 10, 2012, 11:15 PM CDT
In force: 16 min
Issued by: NWS Topeka, KS

County Brown County, KS

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 4.0 hours before the alert went out and 87 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2323 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -31 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1479 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 66 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 138 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 4.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jun 10, 6:45 PM CDT, 4 hours 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 10, 6:45 PM CDT, 4 hours 14 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
645 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM - THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BECOMING LIKELY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM. IT
APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY AXIS FOR DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE GENERALLY
NEAR A LINE FROM MARYSVILLE TO CLAY CENTER TO ABILENE...WITH SOME
WEST TO EAST VARIATION POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON INITIALIZATION TIME.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTION WOULD APPROACH MHK BY 7 PM...TOP AND EMP BY 9 PM...AND
LWC BY 10 PM...AGAIN WITH SOME VARIATION POSSIBLE.

SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES
IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 3000 J/KG THROUGH 9 PM BEFORE TAPERING OFF INTO
THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE BY MIDNIGHT. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL.
THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS ON THE FAR LOW END FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT
DO EXPECT SOME ORGANIZED STORMS PERHAPS WITH SOME MID LEVEL ROTATION
EARLY ON IN THE CONVECTIVE EVENT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A GREATER
THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC
WITH A HATCHED THREAT AREA FOR HAIL OVER NORTHEAST KS. COULD SEE A
FEW HAIL STONES TO 2 INCHES OR SO IF MID LEVEL ROTATION CAN DEVELOP.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVENTUALLY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO PROHIBIT UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT
INTERACTION FOR VERY LONG. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WHILE THE HAIL
THREAT WILL DECREASE A BIT THROUGH THE EVENING...THE DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT IF A GOOD
INSTABILITY FEED CAN BE MAINTAINED INTO THE STORMS. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME TRAINING OF UPDRAFTS IN AN AIRMASS WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR GREATER...WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL.

FINALLY...THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW. THE MINOR EXCEPTION
WOULD SEEM TO BE AT A VERY LOW END POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LANDSPOUT OR
GUSTNADO-TYPE CIRCULATIONS OWING TO THE VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES UNDERNEATH STRONG UPDRAFTS...AND POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFTS TO
PASS OVER THE TOP OF EXISTING OUTFLOW/SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
BOUNDARY. AGAIN...THIS POTENTIAL IS LOW...BUT NON-NEGLIGIBLE.

COULD SEE A BIT OF ELEVATED RE-DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THIS ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THE FRONT WILL
STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND A BIT OF THIS PRECIP MAY SNEAK NORTH INTO
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AGAIN...BUT MOST SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH. TEMPS ON
MONDAY WILL REMAIN WARM DESPITE THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. DEEP
MIXING AND AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

BARJENBRUCH

LONG TERM...MON NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUN.

COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUES. LOWS IN THE 50S
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET
THROUGH TUES. NEXT WAVE FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDS INTO
THU WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHCS FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. BEYOND
THU...UPPER RIDGING AND LACK OF NOTABLE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES WILL
KEEP ANY PRECIP CHCS LOW AT BEST. GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH WITH
RAIN CHCS GIVEN THE PATTERN SO CONSENSUS WAS TO LOWER TO SLIGHT CHCS OR
KEEP CONDS DRY BEYOND THU.

OMITT

&&

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE TERMINALS WEST TO EAST IN THE 02Z-05Z
TIME FRAME WITH SLOWLY DECREASING WINDS AHEAD OF IT AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH CAPPING
REMAINS...POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR SFC AND ELEVATED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP THROUGH 06Z BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. VFR STRATOCU DECK IN ITS WAKE WILL
CLEAR THE TERMINALS BY 12-14Z WITH WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 10, 9:56 PM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before

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In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 10, 8:46 PM CDT, 2 hours 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
846 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     HAIL             6 SSE BARNES            39.63N 96.83W
06/10/2012  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   PUBLIC

&&

MRC

Local storm report, Jun 10, 9:20 PM CDT, 1 hour 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
920 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARYSVILLE              39.84N 96.65W
06/10/2012                   MARSHALL           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN REPORTED NEAR 14TH AND SPRING ROAD IN TOWN.

&&

COMITT

Local storm report, Jun 10, 9:23 PM CDT, 1 hour 36 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
923 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0904 PM     HAIL             8 NNW RANDOLPH          39.54N 96.82W
06/10/2012  E0.75 INCH       RILEY              KS   PUBLIC

&&

BARJENBRUCH

Special weather statement, Jun 10, 10:15 PM CDT, 44 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jun 10, 10:32 PM CDT, 27 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jun 10, 10:59 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Topeka, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 10, 7:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Washington	24 min
Jun 10, 7:14 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Washington	31 min
Jun 10, 7:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Marshall, Washington	25 min
Jun 10, 7:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Washington	41 min
Jun 10, 7:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Marshall	50 min
Jun 10, 8:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Clay, Marshall, Riley, Washington	41 min
Jun 10, 8:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Marshall	48 min
Jun 10, 8:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Marshall, Riley, Washington	48 min
Jun 10, 9:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Pottawatomie, Riley	45 min
Jun 10, 10:15 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Pottawatomie	45 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Kansas, 2012 Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.