Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
645 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM - THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BECOMING LIKELY BETWEEN 5 AND 7 PM. IT
APPEARS THAT THE MOST LIKELY AXIS FOR DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE GENERALLY
NEAR A LINE FROM MARYSVILLE TO CLAY CENTER TO ABILENE...WITH SOME
WEST TO EAST VARIATION POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON INITIALIZATION TIME.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LEADING EDGE OF
CONVECTION WOULD APPROACH MHK BY 7 PM...TOP AND EMP BY 9 PM...AND
LWC BY 10 PM...AGAIN WITH SOME VARIATION POSSIBLE.

SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES
IN THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY SHOULD ALSO
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 3000 J/KG THROUGH 9 PM BEFORE TAPERING OFF INTO
THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE BY MIDNIGHT. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL.
THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS ON THE FAR LOW END FOR SUPERCELLS...BUT
DO EXPECT SOME ORGANIZED STORMS PERHAPS WITH SOME MID LEVEL ROTATION
EARLY ON IN THE CONVECTIVE EVENT. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A GREATER
THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC
WITH A HATCHED THREAT AREA FOR HAIL OVER NORTHEAST KS. COULD SEE A
FEW HAIL STONES TO 2 INCHES OR SO IF MID LEVEL ROTATION CAN DEVELOP.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO EVENTUALLY BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO PROHIBIT UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT
INTERACTION FOR VERY LONG. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT WHILE THE HAIL
THREAT WILL DECREASE A BIT THROUGH THE EVENING...THE DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT IF A GOOD
INSTABILITY FEED CAN BE MAINTAINED INTO THE STORMS. MAY ALSO SEE
SOME TRAINING OF UPDRAFTS IN AN AIRMASS WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES OR GREATER...WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL.

FINALLY...THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW. THE MINOR EXCEPTION
WOULD SEEM TO BE AT A VERY LOW END POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF LANDSPOUT OR
GUSTNADO-TYPE CIRCULATIONS OWING TO THE VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES UNDERNEATH STRONG UPDRAFTS...AND POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFTS TO
PASS OVER THE TOP OF EXISTING OUTFLOW/SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
BOUNDARY. AGAIN...THIS POTENTIAL IS LOW...BUT NON-NEGLIGIBLE.

COULD SEE A BIT OF ELEVATED RE-DEVELOPMENT MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH THIS ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY OVER EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. THE FRONT WILL
STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND A BIT OF THIS PRECIP MAY SNEAK NORTH INTO
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AGAIN...BUT MOST SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH. TEMPS ON
MONDAY WILL REMAIN WARM DESPITE THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. DEEP
MIXING AND AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

BARJENBRUCH

LONG TERM...MON NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUN.

COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION MON NIGHT INTO TUES. LOWS IN THE 50S
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET
THROUGH TUES. NEXT WAVE FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDS INTO
THU WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT CHCS FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. BEYOND
THU...UPPER RIDGING AND LACK OF NOTABLE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES WILL
KEEP ANY PRECIP CHCS LOW AT BEST. GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO HIGH WITH
RAIN CHCS GIVEN THE PATTERN SO CONSENSUS WAS TO LOWER TO SLIGHT CHCS OR
KEEP CONDS DRY BEYOND THU.

OMITT

&&

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE TERMINALS WEST TO EAST IN THE 02Z-05Z
TIME FRAME WITH SLOWLY DECREASING WINDS AHEAD OF IT AND A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH CAPPING
REMAINS...POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR SFC AND ELEVATED CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP THROUGH 06Z BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. VFR STRATOCU DECK IN ITS WAKE WILL
CLEAR THE TERMINALS BY 12-14Z WITH WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY FROM
THE NORTH.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
253 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-112000-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
253 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 5 PM AND 7 PM
TODAY. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE NEAR A LINE FROM MARYSVILLE
TO CLAY CENTER TO MINNEAPOLIS...WITH THE LINE MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.

DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO 2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HAIL POTENTIAL
WILL DECREASE A BIT AFTER 9 PM...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP TO
1 INCH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE TURNPIKE.

SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ALONG AND EAST OF A
MARYSVILLE TO CLAY CENTER TO ABILENE LINE BETWEEN 5 PM AND 11 PM.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
747 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     HAIL             LINN                    39.68N 97.08W
06/10/2012  E1.25 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
759 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     HAIL             1 SW LINN               39.67N 97.10W
06/10/2012  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   PUBLIC

&&

63

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
827 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

KSZ010-110215-
MARSHALL-
827 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY...

THROUGH 915 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 15 MPH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY. TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS
REPORTED THIS STORM WAS PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 40
MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED
INCLUDE MARYSVILLE AND BEATTIE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT.

&&

LAT...LON 3998 9632 3978 9632 3981 9669 3999 9665
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 280DEG 13KT 3989 9655