Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Topeka, KS

October 13, 2012Clay County, Cloud County, Ottawa County, Kansas

NWS Topeka, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 13, 2012, 5:40 PM CDT for Clay County, Cloud County, Ottawa County, Kansas. It was in force for 50 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 13, 2012, 5:40 PM CDT (22:40 UTC)
Expired: Oct 13, 2012, 6:30 PM CDT
In force: 50 min
Issued by: NWS Topeka, KS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Ottawa County, KS

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 102 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Oct 13, 3:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 150 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 116 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -71 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 575 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 256 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 220 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

393 
WUUS53 KTOP 132240
SVRTOP
KSC027-029-143-132330-
/O.NEW.KTOP.SV.W.0121.121013T2240Z-121013T2330Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
540 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN CLOUD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 537 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST
  OF WELLS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

  HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...MINOR DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND WINDOWS. MINOR TREE
           DAMAGE...WITH LIMBS UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER BROKEN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CLAY CENTER...OAK HILL...MILTONVALE...IDANA...MORGANVILLE AND
  VINING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3956 9736 3957 9696 3948 9697 3917 9738
      3920 9753 3931 9752
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 227DEG 36KT 3924 9748

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60 MPH

$$

BLAIR

3 follow-up statements

912 
WWUS53 KTOP 132300
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
600 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

KSC029-143-132309-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0121.000000T0000Z-121013T2330Z/
OTTAWA KS-CLOUD KS-
600 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CLOUD AND
NORTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST 
CLOUD COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM.

LAT...LON 3956 9736 3957 9696 3948 9697 3928 9724
      3925 9737 3947 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 227DEG 39KT 3944 9723

$$

KSC027-132330-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0121.000000T0000Z-121013T2330Z/
CLAY KS-
600 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN CLAY
COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 556 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR IDANA...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...MINOR DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND WINDOWS. MINOR TREE
         DAMAGE...WITH LIMBS UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER BROKEN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLAY CENTER AND MORGANVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3956 9736 3957 9696 3948 9697 3928 9724
      3925 9737 3947 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 227DEG 39KT 3944 9723

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60 MPH

$$

BLAIR

336 
WWUS53 KTOP 132320
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
620 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

KSC027-132330-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0121.000000T0000Z-121013T2330Z/
CLAY KS-
620 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
CLAY COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 618 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF
MORGANVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...MINOR DAMAGE TO VEHICLES...ROOFS AND WINDOWS. MINOR TREE
         DAMAGE...WITH LIMBS UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER BROKEN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3951 9697 3948 9697 3943 9704 3941 9718
      3946 9724 3956 9715 3957 9698 3957 9696
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 227DEG 39KT 3950 9709

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60 MPH

$$

BLAIR

493 
WWUS53 KTOP 132330
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
630 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

KSC027-132340-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0121.000000T0000Z-121013T2330Z/
CLAY KS-
630 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY HAS
EXPIRED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

ADDITIONAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM

LAT...LON 3951 9697 3948 9697 3943 9704 3941 9718
      3946 9724 3956 9715 3957 9698 3957 9696
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 227DEG 39KT 3957 9698

$$

BLAIR

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 13, 2:34 PM CDT, 3 hours 6 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 13, 2:34 PM CDT, 3 hours 6 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
234 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

.DISCUSSION...

...SEVERE STORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
THE AREA...

THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SOME
ORGANIZATION...SEVERE WEATHER IN NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH A WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE LESS
THAN 1000 J/KG. ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...BETTER
INSOLATION...THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION...AND CONTINUED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS YIELDED MODEST
ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY AND A FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT
MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS...AND HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION RESOLVING
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE BETWEEN 20-21Z
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. RADAR AND SATELLITE ALSO SUGGEST ENHANCED CU
AND WEAK ECHOES INCREASING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF DDC WHICH MAY
INDICATE THE BEGINNING OF CI. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO RAPIDLY
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL
EVOLVE INTO A LINE AND MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ATTM...THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLARS
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING THE MOST PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S. BLAIR

MONDAY UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH BRIEF RETURN TO LEE TROF
OVER THE PLAINS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE UPPER 70S NEAR 80 WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. NEXT FRONT
PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS LARGE UPPER TROF DROPS OUT OF
CANADA QUICKLY INTO THE PLAINS STATES. AFTER HIGHS NEAR 70 ON
WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
FOLLOW WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 67

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z AT TAF SITES. OCCASIONAL
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TOP/FOE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING TAF SITES DURING THE 23Z-04Z WINDOW. A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z...WITH
CLEARING SKIES BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

BLAIR

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 13, 12:55 PM CDT, 4 hours 45 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1255 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-141800-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1255 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...THEN MAINLY OVER
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS...BUT HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
HALF DOLLARS AND A ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
MOST PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 3 PM THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

BLAIR

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 13, 2:41 PM CDT, 2 hours 59 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
241 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

KSZ039-040-055-132000-
DOUGLAS-OSAGE-SHAWNEE-
241 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHAWNEE...
NORTHEASTERN OSAGE AND NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

THROUGH 300 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN SHAWNEE...NORTHEASTERN OSAGE AND
NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO PENNY SIZED HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE CARBONDALE...BERRYTON
AND RICHLAND. MOTORISTS ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 185 AND 198 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3907 9554 3899 9532 3870 9569 3879 9581
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 221DEG 44KT 3880 9569

$$ BLAIR

Local storm report, Oct 13, 5:22 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
522 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             4 NE DELPHOS            39.31N 97.72W
10/13/2012  E1.00 INCH       CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KS

Local storm report, Oct 13, 5:24 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
524 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     TSTM WND GST     SSE MINNEAPOLIS         39.12N 97.70W
10/13/2012  E65 MPH          OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JW

Local storm report, Oct 13, 5:36 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MINNEAPOLIS             39.12N 97.71W
10/13/2012                   OTTAWA             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF REPORTED A POWER LINE DOWN FROM THE STRONG WINDS
            IN MINNEAPOLIS.

&&

JW

The office that day

Everything else NWS Topeka, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 12, 10:50 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Marshall	25 min
Oct 13, 2:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Douglas	19 min
Oct 13, 4:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Ottawa	50 min
Oct 13, 5:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Cloud	50 min
Oct 13, 6:08 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TOP	Republic	111 min
Oct 13, 6:09 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Ottawa	36 min
Oct 13, 6:13 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TOP	Washington	32 min
Oct 13, 6:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Clay, Riley	34 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2012 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.