Special Weather Statement, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
234 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

.DISCUSSION...

...SEVERE STORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
THE AREA...

THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUES TO QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SOME
ORGANIZATION...SEVERE WEATHER IN NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO PASS THROUGH A WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE LESS
THAN 1000 J/KG. ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...BETTER
INSOLATION...THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION...AND CONTINUED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS YIELDED MODEST
ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY AND A FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT
MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS...AND HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION RESOLVING
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE BETWEEN 20-21Z
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. RADAR AND SATELLITE ALSO SUGGEST ENHANCED CU
AND WEAK ECHOES INCREASING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF DDC WHICH MAY
INDICATE THE BEGINNING OF CI. ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO RAPIDLY
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL
EVOLVE INTO A LINE AND MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ATTM...THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS
WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS...ALTHOUGH HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLARS
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING THE MOST PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY MID
MORNING SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S TO LOWER
70S. BLAIR

MONDAY UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH BRIEF RETURN TO LEE TROF
OVER THE PLAINS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS
SHOULD BE UPPER 70S NEAR 80 WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. NEXT FRONT
PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS LARGE UPPER TROF DROPS OUT OF
CANADA QUICKLY INTO THE PLAINS STATES. AFTER HIGHS NEAR 70 ON
WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
FOLLOW WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 67

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z AT TAF SITES. OCCASIONAL
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TOP/FOE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING TAF SITES DURING THE 23Z-04Z WINDOW. A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z...WITH
CLEARING SKIES BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.

BLAIR

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1255 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-141800-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1255 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...THEN MAINLY OVER
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES EASTWARD. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS...BUT HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
HALF DOLLARS AND A ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
MOST PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 3 PM THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

BLAIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
241 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

KSZ039-040-055-132000-
DOUGLAS-OSAGE-SHAWNEE-
241 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHAWNEE...
NORTHEASTERN OSAGE AND NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

THROUGH 300 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN SHAWNEE...NORTHEASTERN OSAGE AND
NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO PENNY SIZED HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE CARBONDALE...BERRYTON
AND RICHLAND. MOTORISTS ALONG THE KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 185 AND 198 COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED.

&&

LAT...LON 3907 9554 3899 9532 3870 9569 3879 9581
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 221DEG 44KT 3880 9569

$$ BLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
522 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             4 NE DELPHOS            39.31N 97.72W
10/13/2012  E1.00 INCH       CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
524 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     TSTM WND GST     SSE MINNEAPOLIS         39.12N 97.70W
10/13/2012  E65 MPH          OTTAWA             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
536 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MINNEAPOLIS             39.12N 97.71W
10/13/2012                   OTTAWA             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF REPORTED A POWER LINE DOWN FROM THE STRONG WINDS
            IN MINNEAPOLIS.

&&

JW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
609 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

KSZ034-132345-
OTTAWA-
609 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OTTAWA COUNTY...

THROUGH 645 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF OTTAWA COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE
AFFECTED INCLUDE WELLS.

&&

LAT...LON 3931 9753 3931 9748 3930 9737 3927 9737
      3916 9738 3896 9763 3896 9790
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 227DEG 39KT 3908 9762

BLAIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
613 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

KSZ009-132345-
WASHINGTON-
613 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY...

THROUGH 645 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS AROUND 50 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD BE AFFECTED INCLUDE
LINN...GREENLEAF...WASHINGTON...BARNES...HOLLENBURG AND HANOVER.

&&

LAT...LON 4000 9680 3969 9681 3957 9701 3957 9736
      4000 9702
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 227DEG 39KT 3957 9715

$$ BLAIR