Special Weather Statement, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
401 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS WEEK WILL SHIFT OUT INTO ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING FRIDAY...BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL
ALSO MOVE EAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP
THE DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE REGION FRIDAY...BUT DURING
SATURDAY THE GFS...NAM AND CANADIAN BEGIN TO LIFT THE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE NORTH WHILE THE CONSISTENT ECMWF PUSHES IT FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA. HAVE
PRETTY MUCH DECIDED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THESE MODELS AND KEPT THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

FOR TODAY WE SHOULD SEE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL GULF APPROACHES. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS TO
80 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH AND FAR
SOUTH. STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD.

EARLY TONIGHT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD WIND DOWN ONCE AGAIN...BUT
LATE TONIGHT WE SHOULD SEE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
AND BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE CHANCE POPS.

DURING FRIDAY DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AND
WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN WHERE THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED AS MENTIONED EARLIER AND THIS EFFECTS
WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST INSTABILITY END UP. FOR NOW
HAVE LEFT THE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF LATER SHIFTS HAVE TO RAISE POPS AGAIN.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
AND MOSTLY IN THE 70S. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90...BUT IF WE GET ORGANIZED AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP WE COULD END UP WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
70S ON TODAY AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST WITH DEEP MOISTURE HOLDING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ALOFT...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VORT MAXES MOVING
OVER THE AREA. THE UPPER ENERGY COMBINED WITH THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING FRIDAY NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHERLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
APPROACH EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA TODAY INTO TONIGHT THEN ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXCEPT IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS COULD
OCCUR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  75  87  75 /  80  50  70  30
FMY  86  75  87  74 /  70  40  60  40
GIF  86  73  88  73 /  80  50  70  30
SRQ  85  75  86  74 /  80  50  70  30
BKV  86  71  88  70 /  80  50  70  30
SPG  86  78  86  77 /  80  50  70  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CHARLOTTE-
     HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...24/COLSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
541 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830-850-853-856-870-
873-876-071600-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
541 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND UPPER ENERGY
STREAMING OVER THE AREA. STRONG GUSTY WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINS CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ALLOW
FOR A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. TO AVOID
GETTING CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES AND HEED
THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. AT UNGUARDED BEACHES AND NEAR
PIERS...JETTIES...AND INLETS...DO NOT GO INTO THE SURF MUCH ABOVE
YOUR KNEES.

IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT ATTEMPT
TO MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE. INSTEAD...MOVE SIDEWAYS ACROSS THE
RIP CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL EASES. ANOTHER METHOD OF ESCAPE IS TO
LET THE RIP CURRENT PULL YOU SEAWARD 50 TO 100 YARDS...WHERE THE
FORCE WEAKENS. THEN...SWIM TOWARD THE BEACH AT AN ANGLE AWAY FROM
THE CURRENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA EACH DAY AS A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND ENERGY ALOFT SLOWLY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE. STRONG GUSTY WINDS...DEADLY
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

COLSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
614 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012

FLZ055-060-071100-
MANATEE-SARASOTA-
614 AM EDT THU JUN 7 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SARASOTA AND WESTERN MANATEE
COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CORTEZ TO SOUTH
VENICE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BRADENTON TO ENGLEWOOD...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH...WILL AFFECT
CORTEZ...BRADENTON BEACH...SAINT ARMANDS KEY AND SIESTA KEY...UNTIL
700 AM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 179 AND 224.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

LAT...LON 2751 8267 2758 8231 2708 8208 2700 8242
      2706 8246 2723 8253 2727 8258 2730 8258
      2735 8263 2739 8265 2744 8270 2749 8272
TIME...MOT...LOC 1014Z 256DEG 17KT 2742 8262 2702 8237